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Re:Re:想請教股市是不是零和遊戲？股價在實務上如何被決定？ (2009/2/8 下午 03:11:47 )
零和遊戲: all participants for "a game"
should follow the same rules to enter or
exit the game. if both investiment parties
make investment decisions by the same rules
(like playing a game)..then, yes..
it's a zero-sum game.
traders (not investors) are more like game
players. they constantly buy or sale for
one goal: "year end profit or loss".
"Investment" on the other hand is NOT an zero-sum game. Different investors enter the market with different risk-tolerance, different investment horizon, and different
liquidy preference.
suppose Party A own a stock for 1 year and now need liquidity to pay for emergency.
Party A then sold the stock for a profit to
Party B. Another year later, Party B sold the stock and also made a profit.
this is a win-win situation.
Party A got the liquidity when he need cash
for emergency. Party A didn't care whatever going to happen to the stock next year, cuz s/he needs money "NOW". S/he existed the game, and Party B took the stock over to start a new game, and luckly s/he also made a profit when s/he exit the game.
Notice that Party A and Party B are playing
different games.
If party A and party B enter a stock option contract. one long and the other short.
in this case, party A and party B are playing the same game. and this becomes a zero-sum game.
股價如何被決定？
like every asset in the market, the asset price is always determined by the basic economic rule. "demand" and "supply".
there are, however, many factors affects
demand and supply and caused the stock price
to flucturate. There are many asset pricing theories that help to find the benchmark price for equities. ex:
CAPM, discount cashflow model, etc.
but these are just theories. again,
price is always determined by "demand" and "supplies". Theories are just to help
justify it.
那一家公司的市價，究竟是怎麼被決定的呢？
ppl have different view on this.
some ppl believe Market is efficient, so
stock market price is stock market value.
many others do not believe market effienciy.
that's where the value investors come in the picture. they evaluate the company based on the earning power, market shares,
management skills and integrity, etc and try
to find under-valued stocks.
if you are a value investor, then YOU are
the one to decide the fair price of the
investment target. If you believe in
"market efficiency", then, you accept the
price given in the market.
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想請教股市是不是零和遊戲？股價在實務上如何被決定？ (2009/2/4 下午 05:08:02
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