Investing Legends |
Warren Buffett, Peter Lynch, Benjamin Graham (2007/12/20 下午 04:21:38
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Investing Legends -- Warren Buffett, Peter Lynch, Benjamin Graham- [ 翻譯此頁 ]Our goal in profiling these Investing Legends is to help everyday investors understand and learn from the disciplined and value-oriented approaches espoused ...
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Our goal in profiling these Investing Legends is to help everyday investors understand and learn from the disciplined and value-oriented approaches espoused by these investing greats. By following their unique methodologies and incorporating some of their ideas into your own investing framework, your portfolios are likely to do far better than they would have otherwise.
We currently cover several investing legends:
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Benjamin Graham: The Father of Value Investing
Benjamin Graham is considered by many to be the father of financial analysis and value investing.
Warren Buffett: The Oracle of Omaha
Warren Buffett is widely regarded as the world's most prominent value investor
Peter Lynch: Fund Manager and Investing Guru
Peter Lynch secured his reputation as one of the most successful fund managers in history while in charge of the Fidelity Magellan Fund.
Eddie Lampert: Billionaire Financier and Hedge Fund Manager
Eddie Lampert became one of the world's most famous investors following his purchase of bankrupt retailer Kmart back in 2003.
http://www.streetauthority.com/investing-legends.asp |
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劉道捷 |
一本奠定分析師專業基礎的書 (2008/1/3 下午 09:09:22 )
投資封神榜》葛蘭姆玩套利 兩頭賺
【經濟日報╱記者 劉道捷】 2008.01.03 02:12 am
1920年代時，葛蘭姆已經開始採價值型投資策略，他這段期間裡有不少傑作，利用杜邦（Du Pont Corporation）與通用汽車（General Motors）兩大公司間的價值差異套利，是他高明操作的典範，也是他慣常採用的操作。
杜邦控制極多資產，在很多種產業中都是龍頭公司，而且利用手頭多餘的現金，買了一堆通用汽車的股票。雖然如此，杜邦的總市值居然比所持有通用股票的價值還低。換句話說，杜邦的股價根本只反映了所持有通用股票的一部分，完全沒有反映所有其他資產。
價值失衡 遲早會被矯正
葛蘭姆注意到這種異常情況，認定不是通用汽車的股價高估，就是市場忽視杜邦本身的營運。因此他決定賭市場早晚會矯正這種失衡，就買進杜邦，同時放空七倍數量的通用汽車。
市場很快的證明他的看法正確，杜邦股價開始飛躍上漲，於是葛蘭姆賣掉做多杜邦的部位，同時回補通用的空頭部位。
妙的是這種操作沒有風險，如果市場以通用汽車下跌的方式矯正失衡，葛蘭姆可以回補通用，賺到利潤。這種作法後來變成價值型投資者的標準操作工具。
1926年葛蘭姆和中學時結識、後來當證券營業員的終生好友紐曼（Jerome Newman）合夥，組成葛蘭姆紐曼公司（Graham-Newman Corp.），從事投資業務。
這時的葛蘭姆投資十分順利，卻料不到隔年他最為寵愛的長子因為耳朵痛的小病送命，讓他萬念俱灰，整個人完全變了樣，人生從此失去彩色，傷心的樣子連客戶都能夠感受出來。其實他還有一個至少一樣聰明、可愛、集靈秀於一身的長女，可惜他極為重男輕女，無法克服喪子之痛。
為了排遺哀傷，葛蘭姆加倍努力工作，還另外找事情做。這時他在華爾街已經歷練了11年，想到應該著書立說，因此就在1928年，回到母校哥倫比亞大學企管學院夜間部，開了一門投資原則的課，希望利用教課，發展和整理自己的投資理念。
個案研究 激勵學生思考
這一教就教了28年，教到1956年他退休、同時結束葛蘭姆紐曼公司的經營為止。他也因此寫出有史以來最暢銷又最長銷的投資書籍，其中一本甚至奠定了分析師專業的基礎，也讓他得到華爾街學院院長（Dean of Wall Street）的尊稱。
他比哈佛大學商學院還早，就採用用個案研究的方式，教導學生，上課時，他絕對不會要求你相信他說的話，除非有確實的證據支持他的說法。
他會提出投資個案，讓學生研究和討論，他像蘇格拉底一樣諄諄善誘，引導學生，還會不斷的提出問題，激發學生的興趣和思考，到想出正確的答案為止。這種教法倒真的教出很多未來的投資大師。
他比較注重比較複雜的股票問題，學生也比較喜歡股票。不過他也會要求學生挑選不同的債券，判定所投資的發債公司能否依約，穩定的半年發一次債息，債券到期後，能否順利的償還本金。
【2008/01/03 經濟日報】@ http://udn.com/
http://udn.com/NEWS/STOCK/STO7/4164232.shtml |
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Warren Buffett |
Easy-to-Understand, High ROE & FCF, ... (2007/12/31 下午 06:52:45 )
Warren Buffett: The Oracle of Omaha
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Commonly referred to as "The Oracle of Omaha" due to his Nebraska roots, Warren Buffett is widely regarded as the world's most prominent value investor. Thanks to an ability to spot undervalued companies and purchase them on the cheap, Buffett has made many people very wealthy over the course of his five-decade career. Buffet's 38% stake in Berkshire Hathaway gives him a net worth of more than $32 billion, making him the second-wealthiest man in the world (behind only Bill Gates). He is also one of the very few who has amassed such astonishing riches almost exclusively through stock market investments.
Buffett caught the investing bug at the University of Nebraska, where he read Benjamin Graham's "The Intelligent Investor." Graham's book advised investors to seek out stocks that trade far below their actual value, that deliver a margin of safety and that sell below their intrinsic value.
Buffett thoroughly researches businesses and only buys them at discounted prices. This practice, which was essentially invented and defined by Graham, gives him a so-called "margin of safety" on all of his investments. This margin of safety is the difference between a business' intrinsic value and its share price.
Buffett invests in businesses with superior economic characteristics that are controlled by successful, skilled management teams. He also looks for companies with long histories of above-average earnings growth. And unlike many other investors, Buffett does not pay attention to stock market fluctuations, macroeconomics and market predictions. Instead, he merely sticks to his long-term investing plan. As long as a firm's fundamentals do not change, Buffett will not sell -- even in times of economic crisis.
Below are a few other characteristics that Buffett looks for when evaluating an investment opportunity.
Easy-to-Understand Businesses
One of Warren Buffet's principles is not unlike Peter Lynch's -- stick with what you understand and choose investments with which you are comfortable. Buffett, arguably one of the greatest and most revered stock-pickers of all time, says investors shouldn't complicate things by seeking out complicated companies.
Along those lines, the world's savviest investor has kept Berkshire Hathaway away from fast-growing technology stocks. Buffett admits that he just doesn't understand technology well. As such, he avoids the industry altogether. Before investing in any business, Buffett attempts to predict what the company will look like 10 years in the future. High-tech markets change too fast to look that far ahead with any confidence.
High Return on Equity (ROE)
Buffett emphasizes return on equity (ROE), a key measure of a company's profitability. He prefers to invest in companies where he can confidently forecast future ROEs at least 10 years out. He is particularly fond of firms that don't require a lot of capital, as they tend to produce much higher returns on equity.
Consistently Strong Free Cash Flow
Buffett also seeks companies with significant free cash flow. Always mindful of the risks associated with investing, he ensures that his companies have plenty of money left over to invest in their growth after they have paid the bills.
Limited Debt
In the 1990s, Buffett bought insurers Geico and General Re because he liked how the companies limited and managed their debt.
Buffett also likes the "float" that insurance companies offer. Policyholders pay premiums up front, but claims are paid out later -- providing insurance companies with a steady stream of low-cost cash to play with. Until policyholders collect on their policies or claims, the company can invest those billions in stocks/bonds or other areas, and who better to invest that money than Buffett himself?
Quality Management
Among the most noteworthy aspects of Buffett's stock-picking expertise is that he looks for quality companies with quality management teams. When Buffett buys a business, he buys its management as well. Buffett looks for people who are as passionate about their business as he is about investing.
http://www.streetauthority.com/warren_buffett.asp |
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Peter Lynch |
Do Not Hold Cash (2007/12/31 下午 02:14:46 )
Peter Lynch: Fund Manager and Investing Guru
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Now retired, Lynch secured his reputation as one of the most successful fund managers in history while in charge of the Fidelity Magellan fund between 1977 and 1990. During the 13 years until his retirement in 1990, Magellan was the top-ranked general-equity mutual fund. A $10,000 investment in Magellan in 1977 would have grown to $288,000 by 1990. During this period Lynch achieved and average annual return of 29%.
When Lynch assumed the management of Magellan in 1977, the fund had $20 million in assets. By 1990, when he decided to take early retirement, its value had grown to $14 billion. During the 13 years that Lynch ran the fund, Magellan failed to outperform the S&P 500 stock index only twice. No fund manager in history has ever ran so large a fund, so successfully, for so long. What is truly exceptional is that Lynch was able to maintain such high returns even after their fund's assets had swelled.
Although it is very difficult to emulate Lynch's portfolio management style, Lynch insists that small investors can research stocks better than most professionals. This is because individual investors are often better positioned to spot profitable investments earlier. Moreover, they are always free to act independently. By contrast, many Wall Street professionals are constrained by committees, trustees and superiors.
Below are a few of Peter Lynch's investing principals:
Invest in What You Know
Lynch's key concept is that you can spot investment opportunities all around you by concentrating on what you already know and are familiar with. Lynch always invested in industries he understood, even if that business operated in a sector or industries that was forecasted to deliver lackluster performance. One such example was his investment in Chrysler in the 1980s. Chrysler was near bankruptcy at that time, but after seeing prototypes of its new minivan, Lynch made Chrysler one of Magellan's top holdings. Chrysler more than tripled in price in subsequent years.
Seize a Good Opportunity
Lynch was always on the hunt for above-average profit opportunities. Although he liked value stocks like Chrysler, he also invested in fast-growing up-and-comers such as Hanes Co. Hanes' stock appreciated six-fold while Magellan held it.
Profitability, Price, and a Good Business Model
Lynch generally looked for three qualities in a good company: profitability, price, and a good business model.
Check the key numbers.
1. If you are excited by a particular product or service, ensure that it accounts for a sufficient percentage of total company sales and that it makes a significant contribution to profits.
2. Favor companies with a strong cash position
3. Favor companies with a forward PE ratio well below their forecasted EPS growth rate
4. Avoid companies with high debt-to-equity ratios.
5. Avoid slow growers and cyclical stocks.
Do Not Hold Cash
You should always stay fully invested, otherwise you will likely miss out on market upswings. Ignore the ups and downs of the market. Your profits and losses do not depend on the economy as a whole. Buy whenever you come across an attractive idea with a compelling story behind it.
Know When to Sell
Sell your bellwether holdings when their PEGs (calculated as PE dividend by a firm's projected earnings growth rate) reach around 1.2-1.4, or when a company's long-term growth rate starts to slow.
Sell fast growers when there appears to be no further scope for expansion, or when expansion starts to produce only disappointing sales and profits growth, or when their PEGs reach around 1.5-2.0.
Sell asset plays when they are taken over, or when assets that are sold off fetch lower-than-expected prices.
http://www.streetauthority.com/peter_lynch.asp |
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劉道捷 |
統計專家 = 證券分析師 (2007/12/29 下午 04:12:21 )
投資封神榜》葛蘭姆 證券分析師始祖
【經濟日報╱記者 劉道捷】 2007.12.27 02:40 am
一次大戰期間，葛蘭姆在紐柏格的各個部門歷練，公司甚至要他當業務員，到處去拜訪客戶、招攬業務，不過他生性害羞，又不太會講話，沒有招到什麼業務。但他跟客戶談話時，發覺大部分客戶都跟他一樣，沒有什麼財務知識，就下定決心研究財務報表，再寫分析報告。
鑽研財報 一鳴驚人
最初的一份報告分析十分詳細，而且強烈建議不能買進，在當時極為罕見。報告被紐約證券交易所一位場內營業員拿去，送給一家叫貝琪公司（Bache & Company）的券商，貝琪看了激賞之至，就要葛蘭姆來當統計專家。
紐柏格不願放葛蘭姆走，就成立統計部門，請他當統計專家─當時只有統計專家，還沒有證券分析師，統計專家就是後來的分析師，證券分析師是葛蘭姆開創的行業。
葛蘭姆除了不善於招攬生意外，其他方面倒是能力高強，他又努力工作，多方歷練後，變的更是精通證券公司各種業務，很快就脫穎而出，遠遠的跑到前面。
戰爭期間，他除了工作外，也開始替家族和朋友操作，還替財經期刊寫文章。因為他肚子裡有東西，又有實務經驗做後盾，寫出來的東西有內容，備受推崇，因此他的名聲開始在華爾街上流傳。
工作穩定後，葛蘭姆決定成家立業，就透過朋友的介紹，跟這個朋友的妹妹結婚，他太太是舞蹈老師，賺的錢比他還多，但是，葛蘭姆在證券市場上常有佳作，常常從債券、股票或債股合一的避險操作中，賺到不少錢。
26歲才子 升合夥人
1920年，他進入公司五年多，才26歲，就升格變成公司的合夥人。當合夥人的好處是高薪照領，同時可以分到公司獲利的2.5%，公司虧損時卻不必賠。以當時混亂而危險的多頭市場來說，他的升級更是難能可貴。
這時的葛蘭姆真是忙翻了，要工作、操盤、還要結婚、生子育女、歸化美國、著述立說。但他也沒有忘記立業，在紐柏格的工作讓他精通最複雜、最困難的操盤技巧，經歷戰時和戰後瘋狂歲月的股市生涯也使他的投資哲學逐漸成形，正好拿來在自己的事業上一試身手。
這時的美國股市叫做沸騰的20年代，和目前中國股市似乎很像，美國剛剛崛起，工業快速發展，國力急速成長，中央銀行體系才剛成立，財經典章制度逐漸成形，股市仍然雜亂無章，炒作、軋空、壟斷、坑殺處處可見。
根據葛蘭姆最著名學生巴菲特的說法，葛蘭姆在這種狂亂的歲月中，卻看出亂中有序，發現市場行為愈不理性，抱著經營事業的精神投資股市的人愈有機會，投資人只要不沈沒在市場不理智的狂潮中，愈能夠從市場的愚蠢行為中獲利。
與友合資 設立基金
1923年6月1日，他和朋友合資的投資公司開張，29歲的葛蘭姆正式當基金經理人。
公司是他和行李箱商店主人哈利（Louis Harris）合資成立，所以取名葛蘭哈公司（Grahar Corporation），哈利是大股東，葛蘭姆負責操作，他吸收了六位投資人的50萬美元，成立沒有上市的私人投資基金，開始「價值型投資」。
【2007/12/27 經濟日報】@ http://udn.com/
http://udn.com/NEWS/STOCK/STO7/4155481.shtml
MORE: http://www.google.com.tw/search?complete=1&hl=zh-TW&q=%E6%8A%95%E8%B3%87%E5%B0%81%E7%A5%9E%E6%A6%9C&btnG=%E6%90%9C%E5%B0%8B&meta=cr%3DcountryTW
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財富人生 |
跟著四大天王 賺遍天下 (2007/12/29 上午 11:38:18 )
財富人生》跟著四大天王 賺遍天下
【經濟日報╱台北訊】 2007.12.29 02:59 am
走過2007年，對於廣大股票投資人而言，無疑是空歡喜一場；面對2008，又該如何精準架構全新的賺錢藍圖？新上市的元月號財富人生月刊，特別製作「2008投資勝經—跟著四大天王賺遍天下」、「M型基金就是要贏」等精采專題報導。
包括巴菲特、索羅斯、羅傑斯及彼得林區等四位全球最頂尖的投資大師，如何操盤才達到神話般的投資成功術，最新一期財富人生月刊報導其投資心法及對2008的投資布局，還專訪國內幾位依照四大名家投資理念賺大錢的贏家，現身說法，暢談其對投資偶像的學習心得，讓讀者一次吸納四大天王的投資精華。
台灣M型社會已檯面化，不論你站在M型的右肩或左肩，都必須有不同的基金投資策略，讓已站在右肩的人可以高度穩定地持續累積財富，讓站在左肩的人，也能加速脫貧，往M型右肩靠近。「M型基金就是要贏」的專題報導，解析站在M型兩端的人，應如何透過不同的基金布局，建構贏的投資策略。
財富人生月刊特價99元，各大超商、連鎖書店均有售。
【2007/12/29 經濟日報】@ http://udn.com/
http://udn.com/NEWS/FINANCE/FIN1/4158543.shtml |
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CFA reader |
Re:Warren Buffett, Peter Lynch, Benjamin Graham (2007/12/21 下午 08:59:01 )
CFA Program 亦很敬重 Benjamin Graham 的 |
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