中時電子報 |
股市岌岌可危 (2008/6/27 上午 10:26:50
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末日博士麥嘉華看空台股 最高7700
2008-06-27 工商時報 【盧麗玉／台北報導】
相對於投資大師吉姆．羅傑斯看好台股後勢，「末日博士」麥嘉華(Marc Faber)卻大唱反調，不僅看空台灣股市、房市，甚至連引發全球嚴重通膨問題的原油價格，麥嘉華認為，全球原油供給遠小於需求，油價未來將上看每桶300美元。
由於兩岸關係氣氛佳，眾多外資、投資機構紛紛表態看好台股，並直指台股較全球股市有outperform（亮眼）的表現，但麥嘉華獨排眾議認為台股去年一度從近萬點跌到剩7,700餘點，未來上漲的空間不多，因為這波台股上揚並非以基本面成長力道推升股市所致。
麥嘉華昨日應今周刊邀請來台演講，大談全球經濟看法及投資策略。麥嘉華表示，台股從1984年500點一路狂飆到1990年代的12,500點，現在台灣已經沒有再看到創新高的機會。
麥嘉華甚至透露在一年半前買進台灣房地產概念相關類股，在新政府釋出政策利多、改善兩岸關係下，房市已過熱，目前已將手上房產概念投資股票全部出清！此外，麥嘉華也不看好全球科技類股及台灣科技股，值得注意的是，雖然油價在高檔震盪，但麥嘉華卻點名看好航空股，他認為，航空股目前雖受油價所苦，但回檔後仍可投資。
不過麥嘉華認為台股並不貴，而且相較於台灣政府十年期公債殖利率僅2.5％，台灣某些產業大型龍頭公司是不錯的，配息與殖利率水準也很好，他強調，「投資股票仍是最好的選擇，投資債券是最糟的！」
至於油價麥嘉華預估未來將上看300美元。麥嘉華表示，亞洲有36億人，每天原油需求量2,200萬桶，美國僅3億人，每天卻需要2,200萬桶，且原油進口率從過去23％一路提升到現在73％；再從人均需求量評估，中、印人均年需求量僅1.8萬及0.8萬桶，中印過去需求量已大增1倍，未來12至15年，需求量會再增加1倍，這些因素將會使得原油供應不足。
麥嘉華更表示，1988年以前，每年發現新原油蘊藏量均大於需求量，甚至在1964年發現最大新原油蘊藏量為480億桶，當時需求量僅120億桶，不過目前每年原油需求量為300億桶，新發現原油蘊藏量僅50億桶至60億桶，需求遠大於供給，未來油價不可能下跌，甚至有機會達到每桶300美元。
而這波高油價導致的通膨問題，受到通膨嚴重波及的國家將會是貧窮、沒有生產石油的國家，例如越南人均收入為700美元至800美元，購買食物的費用將會占去一半，而麥嘉華認為，日本將會在這波通膨壓力中受傷最輕的，因為日本能源使用效率高，且有在開發使用核能、水力發電等。
麥嘉華同樣看空美元長期走勢，他認為全球經濟成長趨緩及全球信用市場逐步出現泡沫化，主要是因美國聯準會採取寬鬆貨幣政策，放任市場惡化，甚至出現次貸、銀行倒閉等問題，麥嘉華直呼聯準會才是市場最大的投機客，葛林斯潘及柏南克就是全球投機市場的元兇。
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張金鶚 |
明年房市將面臨向下修正壓力 (2009/12/28 上午 09:52:50 )
張金鶚：明年房市將面臨向下修正壓力
更新日期:2009/12/26 13:35
雖然有房仲業者認為，明年可能因為兩岸即將簽署ECFA，讓房市有向上的機會，不過，研究房地產多年的政大教授張金鶚認為，如果缺乏基本經濟面的支撐、民眾的實質所得也沒有增加，那麼明年房市仍然可能面臨交易量縮小、房價向下修正的情況。（陳鳳如報導）
今年都會區房價高漲，形成民怨。明年的房市還會不會繼續漲下去？政大地政系教授張金鶚認為，房市明年的壓力會比今年大，雖然有人預期不斷改善的兩岸關係，將有助於房市未來發展，不過，他認為，如果實質所得沒有增加，那麼明年房市仍有向下修正壓力。「對明年市場，不管就價格跟量來講，是慢慢有更大的壓力，往下或往縮小的方向，我向這是可以期待的。」
此外，對於央行表示希望銀行透過授信政策調整的方式、以避免房市投機炒作，也說除非這招無效，才會考慮以「選擇性信用管制」因應，張金鶚表示贊同，認為央行朝這樣的方向進行，除了能抑制部分地區房價不合理的上漲，也是希望銀行能減少未來呆帳發生的風險。
http://tw.news.yahoo.com/article/url/d/a/091226/1/1xos8.html |
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彭博 |
美國人不敢消費了 (2008/10/20 下午 05:42:24 )
Turmoil May Make Americans Savers, Worsening `Nasty' Recession
By Rich Miller
Oct. 20 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. may be on its way to becoming a nation of savers, whether Americans like it or not.
With home and stock prices declining and credit hard to come by, consumers who have fallen out of the savings habit are being forced to curb borrowing and rein in spending.
That is bad news for companies catering to them, which will have to retrench as well. Detroit automakers may need to slash costs and merge as Americans hold onto their cars longer. Shopping malls might be forced to shut as retail traffic trails off. Hotels may have to shelve expansion plans as vacationers become stingier with their dollars.
The big concern is that households, spooked by the turmoil in financial markets, will cut back rapidly and sharply, plunging companies into bankruptcy and deepening a recession that many economists say has already begun.
``If we did have a quick cut in spending, it could turn a pretty nasty recession into possibly the worst downturn we've seen in the postwar period,'' says Michael Feroli, a former Federal Reserve official now at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in New York. Even without a collapse of consumer spending, Feroli expects the economy to contract by 2 percent in both this quarter and the next.
There are signs that consumer spending is already giving way. U.S. retail sales fell in September for the third straight month, the longest slump since the government began keeping records in 1992. And consumer confidence as measured by the Reuters/University of Michigan index fell by the most on record this month. Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke will give the central bank's latest assessment of the risks to the economy when he testifies before the House Budget Committee today.
`A Quantum Downward Shift'
``We are going through a quantum downward shift in consumer spending,'' says Allen Sinai, chief economist at Decision Economics in New York. ``Any industry that is tied to the consumer will have to downsize and consolidate.''
From 1960 until 1990, households socked away an average of about 9 percent of their after-tax income, Commerce Department figures show. But Americans got out of the saving habit starting in the 1990s as they saw their wealth build up in other ways, first through surging stock prices and later through soaring home values.
Meantime, looser credit standards made it easier for people to afford major purchases without having to save up to pay for them. The result: Since 1990, they have set aside less and spent more, pushing the savings rate down to an average of 3.5 percent. It was less than 1 percent in each of the last three years.
Nosedive
That may be about to change as wealth and credit evaporate. Household net worth, as measured by the Fed, fell $2 trillion in the second quarter from a year earlier -- and that was before the stock market's nosedive wiped about $3.9 trillion off investors' portfolios in the past month and a half.
Credit is also harder to get. Borrowing by U.S. consumers fell in August by $7.9 billion, the most since statistics began in 1943, to $2.58 trillion as lenders curbed access to loans, according to Fed data.
Add to that a cyclical rise in the unemployment rate -- it already stands at a five-year high of 6.1 percent and could increase to 9 percent, according to Microsoft Corp. co-founder Bill Gates -- and it is no wonder households are retrenching.
`A Fantasy World'
``Consumers are starting to realize that they've been living in a fantasy world,'' says Lyle Gramley, a former Fed governor who is now senior economic adviser at Stanford Group Co. in Washington. ``They will have to begin salting away money for retirement, their children's education and other reasons.''
Americans have a way to go to catch up with their counterparts in other countries. The 0.4 percent of disposable income that U.S. households saved last year compares with 10.9 percent for Germany and 3.1 percent for Japan, according to the Paris-based Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.
In the long run, higher savings would be good news for the U.S. economy, because the extra money would help put household finances on a sounder footing and lessen U.S. dependence on investment by China and other foreign countries to finance economic growth.
In the shorter run, though, it will likely mean wrenching changes for companies that have become reliant on rapidly growing consumer spending. Some firms have already begun cutting back to bring operations in line with lower demand.
Excess Capacity
``Companies built up a lot of capacity,'' says David Wyss, chief economist at Standard & Poor's in New York. ``They may not need all of it.''
The construction industry has been decimated by the collapse of the housing market. At least a dozen homebuilders have sought bankruptcy protection as conditions deteriorated, including billionaire Carl Icahn's WCI Communities Inc., Tousa Inc., Kimball Hill Inc., Levitt & Sons and Neumann Homes Inc.
Automakers are also hurting, especially Detroit's Big Three: General Motors Corp., Ford Motor Co. and Chrysler LLC. U.S. car and truck sales this month may fall to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 11 million, the lowest in at least 25 years, Deutsche Bank AG analyst Rod Lache wrote in an Oct. 14 note to clients. That compares with a 14.1 million average through the first nine months of this year and a 16.7 million average from 2002 through 2007.
``The industry needs desperately a dramatic rationalization; there are too many plants, too many employees,'' John Casesa, managing partner of Casesa Shapiro Group in New York, said in an interview Oct. 10. ``It will be a radical change: far fewer suppliers, possibly not three U.S. companies, maybe three that become two or one.''
Shuttered Dealerships
As many as 600 new-vehicle dealerships may close or consolidate with others this year, the National Automobile Dealers Association said Sept. 30. That is about 3 percent of the total, and up from 430 last year. ``There are more dealerships out there than there are cars to sell,'' says Paul Taylor, an economist at the McLean, Virginia-based group.
Retailers are also suffering a shakeout. A number have already filed for bankruptcy, including Mattress Discounters Corp., Marty Shoes Inc., cookie-maker Mrs. Fields Famous Brands LLC and Linens 'n Things Inc.
As stores closed, vacancies at neighborhood and community shopping centers rose to a 14-year high in the third quarter, according to New York-based real-estate research firm Reis Inc.
More Trauma
More trauma is likely. The Washington-based National Retail Federation says this may be the worst holiday selling season in six years, with sales rising 2.2 percent in the last two months of the year from the same period in 2007.
``The consumer is dead in the water,'' says Howard Davidowitz, chairman of Davidowitz & Associates, a New York- based retail-consulting and investment-banking firm. ``We expect to see 10,000 to 12,000 stores shut next year,'' on top of almost 8,000 this year.
The tourist industry faces tough times as well. Host Hotels & Resorts Inc., the largest U.S. lodging real-estate investment trust, said third-quarter profit fell 44 percent after cash- strapped consumer and corporate groups cut back on trips to Hawaii. U.S. hotels revenue per available room fell 8.1 percent in the week ended Oct. 11 from a year earlier, according to Smith Travel Research, a Hendersonville, Tennessee-based marketing firm that tracks lodging data.
Not surprisingly, many hospitality companies are putting expansion plans on hold, especially with credit becoming scarcer and costlier. More than $10 billion in hotel and casino projects with a total of 10,000 rooms have been delayed on Las Vegas Boulevard, better known the world over as the Strip, according to locally based real-estate and economic consulting firm Applied Analysis LLC.
They may be on hold for a while. ``The economic and financial crisis will have long-lasting effects on the consumer,'' Gramley says. ``The personal-savings rate is going to increase over the next five to 10 years.''
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AWSJ |
比較歷史: 現在谷底不遠了? (2008/10/14 下午 05:47:32 )
回顧歷史 探秘股市
2008年10月14日14:37
上週令人膽戰心驚的股市動盪把投資者搞懵了。仔細研究一下上世紀那場股市大崩盤以及此後幾十年的歷史﹐收獲的將不僅是令人憂慮的發現﹐還有些許使人樂觀的理由。
1932年7月9日是個華爾街永遠不想再度經歷的日子。那一天道瓊斯工業股票平均價格指數收於41.63點﹐較三年前水平足足下跌了91%。那一天的股市總成交量只有區區235,000股。“兄弟﹐能給10美分嗎”是那一年最流行的歌曲之一。喜劇演員艾迪•坎特爾(Eddie Cantor)的一段俏皮話充分概括了投資者的心頭之痛：一位證券經紀商在推薦他買某只股票時曾說﹐買這支股票做養老之用。迪坎特冷笑道﹐“這句話真靈驗啊﹐不到一週我就成個老頭了。”
整個美國當時都深陷財政部長奧格登•米爾斯(Ogden Mills)所說的“恐懼心態”之中。工業生產在三年時間內下降了52%﹔企業利潤下降了49%。坎特爾打趣說﹐“許多業務都前所未有地紅火﹐就拿紅墨水來說吧﹐誰不用它？”
銀行流動資金極其緊缺﹐儲戶生怕失去自己的錢財﹐以致於幾乎沒人再開支票了。當時大多數交易都以現金進行。《紐約時報》(New York Times)的財經專欄作家亞歷山大•達納•諾伊斯(Alexander Dana Noyes)曾在一個住宅按揭貸款組合中投過資。正因為此﹐不斷有陌生人來按響他的門鈴﹐這是些仍能償還他投資的那些按揭貸款的人﹐他們還來的是一把把又冷又硬的現鈔。
1933年拍攝的紐約證交所外景就在道瓊斯指數終於觸底反彈前8天﹐才華橫溢的投資家本傑明•格雷漢姆(Benjamin Graham)發表了《那些富裕但賠錢的公司應被清盤嗎？》一文﹐這是他刊登在《福布斯》雜志(Forbes)上三篇煽動性文章的最後一篇﹐文章用大量事實指出﹐美國許多大企業破產清盤後比它們繼續運營更值錢。許多年後﹐格雷漢姆成了巴菲特(Warren Buffett)的恩師。
據格雷漢姆統計﹐當時紐約證交所的上市企業中每12家中便有超過1家的資產負債表上現金及可交易證券的價值遠遠超過其股票市值。他在文中指出﹐雖然銀行不再直接向大企業放貸﹐但那些依然在經營的公司卻仍握有大量現金﹐以致於從理論上說﹐某位富有的投資者能在把公司的現金和銀行賬戶洗劫一空之後﹐免費擁有剩下的業務。
格雷漢姆在文中總結道：“......在某次泡沫破滅後股價總會跌至過低水平。正如紐約證交所總裁作證時所言﹐在這種時候心驚膽戰的人把我們的合眾國拱手讓出。換句話說﹐之所以發生這種情況是因為擁有企業的人沒錢經營﹐而那些有錢的人又沒有企業﹐還是趁著股票便宜抓緊買入吧。”
在經歷了過去幾週股市的大規模拋售後﹐投資者擔心自己一覺醒來會發現1932年7月的惡夢又再度重演﹐這也情有可原。現在﹐似乎唯一值得問的問題是：股市能跌到多低？
的確﹐最壞的可能確實是1932年那一幕重新上演。但這種可能性有多大很值得懷疑。
耶魯大學(Yale University)金融學教授兼MacroMarkets LLC首席經濟學家羅伯特•席勒(Robert Shiller)專門跟蹤研究他所謂的格雷漢姆市盈率(Graham P/E)﹐這一衡量市場價值的指標是他從格雷漢姆多年前的發現中總結出來的。格雷漢姆市盈率是用美國主要股票的價格除以其過去10年平均每股淨利潤、並經通貨膨脹因素調整後得出的。在經歷上週的大跌後﹐標準普爾500指數的格雷漢姆-席勒市盈率為15倍﹐比9月30日時的水平低了25%。
自1989年1月以來﹐格雷漢姆市盈率還未這樣低過﹔而用席勒本人數據庫中數字計算出的該指標1881年至今平均水平為16.3倍。
廣告不過當股市背離歷史常態後﹐它常常會有過頭表現。格雷漢姆市盈率在當代創下的低點是1982年7、8兩月的6.6倍﹐該指標第二次世界大戰以來曾有數次長期低於10倍﹐最近一次是從1977年直到1984年。要使標準普爾500指數目前的格雷漢姆市盈率降至10倍﹐該指數需降至600點左右。這大約相當於標普500指數從上週水平下降30%﹔或相當於道瓊斯指數跌破6000點。
股市在本輪下跌中真會矯枉過正到如此水平嗎？席勒認為很有可能﹐因為以前出現過這種情況。他說﹐我感覺股指較目前水平還會下跌很多。
格雷漢姆市盈率要降到1982年的低點﹐標普500需要跌到400點左右﹐也就是較今天點位低50%的水平。同樣的跌幅道瓊斯指數將觸及4000點左右。
當然﹐席勒實際上並不是在預言會發生這樣的事。他說﹕我們是在應對基本的、深入的不確定性。我們不能具體量化任何事情。我真地不想作預測﹐因此這只是種直覺認識。但席勒並非突發奇想。他在2000年初互聯網泡沫登峰造極的時候出版的《非理性繁榮》(Irrational Exuberance)一書中就曾預言那斯達克的崩盤。該書2005年再版時指出﹐住房市場被普遍高估了﹐而當時其他學者鮮有持同樣看法者。
席勒不願做正式預測﹐這應能說服我們遠離我們可能沒法確切知道的未來﹐而更多關注眼下這個時候投資者確知的少數事情。
令人驚奇的是﹐今天的情況與格雷漢姆當年對大蕭條混亂時期的描述非常接近。不論市場可能還會下跌多少或者根本不再下跌﹐市場上現在已經有大量廉價股票﹐很難讓人不動心買進。在標普研究機構Compustat跟蹤的9,194只股票中﹐有3,518只股票的往績本益比不到8倍﹐也就是還不到股市整體長期平均本益比的一半。接近一成股票（876只）的股價低於每股現金值﹐這個比例與格雷漢姆1932年得出的比例基本一致。比如﹐嘉信理財(Charles Schwab Corp.)持有278億美元現金﹐而總市值只有210億美元。
這些數字表明﹐股市對未來信心出現大幅度崩塌。並且﹐就像格雷漢姆1932年寫的那樣﹐不管怎麼說股市都錯了﹐就像它一直以來在對未來的重大判斷上總是出錯一樣。
實際上﹐市場現在執著於這輪下跌是否會演變成災難性崩盤的問題﹐這種態度可能又錯了。羅格斯大學經濟學教授懷特(Eugene White)是1929年股市崩盤問題的研究專家。他認為﹐今年跟大蕭條時期唯一的一個真正的相似之處是﹐市場再次出現了受恐慌而非事實推動的局面。儘管迄今為止政府的反應可謂笨拙﹐但政府2008年的行動與胡佛時期的甩手政策和Fed在1929-1932年期間嚴格的職能分割非常不同。懷特說﹐決策者現在的決定要明智得多﹐我們的方向沒有錯。
最重要的是﹐投資者似乎處於一種休克狀態﹐彷彿被市場的極度動盪當頭一棒打得幾近癱瘓。費城投資公司Aronson + Johnson + Ortiz LP的合夥人阿隆森(Theodore Aronson)在這場熊市中堅持得怎樣﹖他說﹐我們有101家客戶﹐代表他們的顧問數量也差不多是這個數字。現在我們基本接不到諮詢電話了﹐每天只有十來個。我交談過的美國各地的金融規劃師中﹐大部分人告訴我的都一樣﹕他們的電話不響了﹐而且只有很少的客戶找他們尋求寬慰。似乎整個國家都被陷入了心理學家所謂的無力對抗金融損失的“錯置效應”中。要緩解損失金錢的痛苦﹐人們很自然地會拒絕承認自己的投資遭到了多麼大的損害。幾週前﹐投資者還是氣喘吁吁﹐現在﹐他們集體進入麻木狀態。
市場目前的心境讓人想起艾米莉•狄更生(Emily Dickinson)的那首詩── 《巨痛後的肅穆》(After Great Pain a Formal Feeling Comes)﹕
這是鉛般沉重的時刻﹐
就算挺過了﹐也仍會記得﹐
像是經歷冰凍的人們憶起那場雪﹐
先是寒冷──繼而麻木──最後讓它走遠。
這種集體性的“不省人事”很可能是許多投資者“釋然”前的最後一個階段﹐交易老手們將這樣的市場心理階段稱為“投降”。不省人事能防止投資者草率從事﹐讓許多長期投資者不至於在接近底部時離場。不過﹐當這種不省人事被打破、許多投資者最終釋然的時候﹐市場就將迎來再次上升。
沒有人能在“投降”發生前發現它。但也許離現在不遠了。就像格雷漢姆寫的那樣﹐在接近底部的時候﹐那些有實業或有資金可以投資的人可能會勝過那些幹等著底部最終卻錯過它的人。
Jason Zweig
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bloomberg |
債券天王說美國將陷入金融龍捲風 (2008/9/5 上午 07:18:36 )
U.S. Must Buy Assets to Prevent `Tsunami,' Gross Says
By Jody Shenn
Sept. 4 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. government needs to start using more of its money to support markets to stem a burgeoning ``financial tsunami,'' according to Bill Gross, manager of the world's biggest bond fund.
Banks, securities firms and hedge funds are dumping assets, driving down prices of bonds, real estate, stocks and commodities, Gross, co-chief investment officer of Newport Beach, California-based Pacific Investment Management Co., said in commentary posted on the firm's Web site today.
``Unchecked, it can turn a campfire into a forest fire, a mild asset bear market into a destructive financial tsunami,'' Gross said. ``If we are to prevent a continuing asset and debt liquidation of near historic proportions, we will require policies that open up the balance sheet of the U.S. Treasury.''
The government needs to replace private investors who either don't have the money to buy new assets or have been burned by losses, Gross said. Pimco, sovereign wealth funds and central banks are reluctant to fund financial firms after losses on investments they made to support the companies, Gross said. The world's biggest banks and brokers have raised $364.4 billion in new capital after more than $500 billion in writedowns and credit losses since the beginning of last year.
Since financial markets seized up a year ago as the subprime-mortgage market collapsed, the Standard & Poor's 500 Index has fallen 13 percent and home prices are down more than 15 percent. Yields on investment-grade corporate bonds, debt backed by commercial mortgages as well as credit cards reached record highs last month relative to benchmark rates.
`Mom and Pop'
Gross cast a bleaker view for the prospects of the world's financial markets than in previous notes to clients. The fund manager has previously called on lawmakers to support housing with legislation passed in July that allows lenders to forgive some of homeowners' debt and then refinance them into government-insured loans.
Pimco, a unit of Munich-based Allianz SE, is seeking to take advantage of declines in home-loan bonds. The firm is raising as much as $5 billion to buy mortgage-backed debt that has plunged in value, according to two investors with knowledge of the matter. The Distressed Senior Credit Opportunities Fund will invest in securities backed by commercial and residential mortgages, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the fund is private.
Paulson Rescue
Treasury should support not only mortgage finance providers Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, but also ``Mom and Pop on Main Street U.S.A.,'' by subsidizing rates on home loans guaranteed by the Federal Housing Administration and other government institutions, Gross said. A new version of the Resolution Trust Corp., which bought assets from failing institutions during the savings-and-loan crisis of the 1980s, may also work, he said.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson arranged a rescue package for Washington-based Fannie and Freddie of McLean, Virginia as concern escalated the government-chartered companies didn't have capital to withstand the housing slump. Treasury pledged to pump unlimited debt or equity into the companies should they need it.
As Fannie and Freddie, banks, securities firms and hedge funds shrink, yields on all debt assets will rise compared with benchmark rates and volatility will increase, Gross said. The declines will end once sellers have depleted their assets and sufficient capital has been raised, Gross said. Unless ``new balance sheets'' emerge, prices of almost all assets will drop, even those of ``impeccable'' quality, he said.
`Anorexic' Appetite
The extra yield demanded on Ginnie Mae's 30-year, current- coupon mortgage-backed securities over 10-year Treasuries has climbed to 1.75 percentage points, from 0.87 percentage points at the start of last year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Bonds guaranteed by the U.S. agency are backed by the U.S. government. Spreads on 2-year AAA rated bonds composed of federally backed student loans have climbed to 0.95 percentage points over benchmark rates, from 0.01 percentage points below, Deutsche Bank AG data show.
``There is an increasing reluctance on the part of the private market to risk any more of its own capital,'' Gross said. ``Liquidity is drying up; risk appetites are anorexic; asset prices, despite a temporarily resurgent stock market, are mainly going down; now even oil and commodity prices are drowning.''
Home Prices
The decline in home prices hasn't been seen since the Great Depression, Gross said. That drop translates to an even bigger decline in overall wealth as the effects ripple through markets, Gross said. Home prices in 20 of the largest U.S. metropolitan areas fell 15.9 percent in June from a year earlier, according to an S&P/Case-Shiller index.
Fannie and Freddie 30-year fixed-rate mortgage bond yields, which influence the rates on most new home loans, have probably risen 75 basis points because of the waning demand, Gross said. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point.
The Pimco Total Return Fund returned 9.8 percent in the past 12 months, beating 97 percent of its peers in the government and corporate bond fund category as of Sept. 3, according to Bloomberg data. The returns are 5.76 percent annually over five years. Pimco has about $830 billion of assets under management.
About 61 percent of Gross's holdings were mortgage-backed securities as of June 30, mostly debt guaranteed by Fannie, Freddie or Ginnie Mae, according to data on Pimco's Web site.
``In a global financial marketplace in the process of delevering, assets that go up in price are rare diamonds as opposed to grains of sand,'' Gross said.
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中時電子報 |
Re:股市岌岌可危 (2008/8/25 下午 03:22:04 )
投資人氣格主黃國華 挑戰名嘴殺出一片天
2008-08-25【中時電子報巫彩蓮／台北報導】
台股萬點行情落空，變化多端的股市行情，讓一路喊多的股市名嘴們變「鴨嘴」，以「總幹事」為筆記的網路作家黃國華，在個人的部落格上大膽地票選股市出貨大師，批評、敢言的作風，他成為投資議題上最有人氣的格主，二年多下來，已有1846萬餘人次瀏覽。
在國內，呂張團隊呂宗耀、財信集團董事長謝金河、萬寶週刊社長朱成志等人，縱橫股海多年，總能引經據典分析台股後市，或是個股表現，不少散戶將他們的分析奉為金科玉律，因此吸引廣大「粉絲」群支持，鮮少人會去檢驗其分析的準確性。
五二○之後，台股連番重挫，黃國華居然重砲出手，發起票選出貨大師的活動，引發廣泛網友討論。一名網路作家何來勇氣，去挑戰股民心中偶像？「我只出書又不出貨，沒有私心；長期以來，這些股市名嘴都是媒體寵兒，他們的言論，沒有人去監督驗證，我只是搖醒投資人，讓大家在作投資決策時，抱持懷疑、悲觀些，才不會承擔太大的風險」，黃國華如此形容，發起票選出貨大師活動的動機。
年約四十歲的黃國華，曾經任職銀行、票券、投信投資部門，兩年前，自職場退休，有一次因硬碟損毀，利用部落格作資訊備份，誤打誤撞成為網路作家，他所提出「阿添伯高價股」理論，以及去年美國聯準會（Fed）降息之後，預期台股轉空的言論，引發網友多空激戰。
黃國華說：「股市為長期過程，台股投資人卻以短線角度來看待它，像三二二總統大選過後，很多人的判斷，被政治立場所蒙蔽，無視趨勢的轉變」、「投資的關鍵並非多空判斷，反而是等待買點出現的耐心。」
黃國華強調，台股充滿了資訊不對稱的陷阱，任何說法或分析，都應該抱持懷疑態度才能夠戰勝市場，像最近炒得火熱庫藏股，很多公司配合政策，宣布實施庫藏股，也許只是口水護盤，後來根本沒有買回，若誤信訊息搶進，結果可能遭到套牢，這種狀況，就如同總統大選過後，相信股市名嘴預測「台股會上萬點」一樣，投資人要培養自己反省能力。
近期台股因前總統陳水扁嫌涉海外帳戶洗錢，牽扯出二次金改案外案，其間情節有人說類似日劇「華麗一族」；但是，黃國華「金控迷霧」的著作，更為寫實貼切，問他何來想像力，描寫如此錯綜複雜的情節？「如果有似曾相識的感覺，也許是大家處在共犯結構下，雷同荒謬之感」，這是他給的答案。
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FRANK PART 2 |
胡立陽胡言亂語? (2008/8/17 下午 09:46:26 )
胡立陽：台股11月20日走出熊市
【經濟日報╱記者宋健生／台中報導】 2008.08.17 03:27 am
國際投資大師胡立陽指出，根據他的經驗，台灣股市目前只能算是「迷你熊市」，若以新政府上台的520為起點，預期台股空頭市場在今年11月20日就會結束，基於新政府積極開放兩岸政策，大陸內需、金融資產、食品、運輸及觀光等「三通概念股」，是目前趁盤整階段最值得分批低接的標的，電子股則受美國不景氣影響，短期內不建議投資。
胡立陽指出，一般所謂熊市，必須是股價指數從高檔摔落25%，且月線連三黑。根據他的經驗，一般熊市正常維持二年三個月，牛市則要三年六個月。但股市下跌屬非經濟因素時，則稱為「迷你熊市」，通常僅維持六個月。
台灣此次下跌，就屬非經濟因素；此外，中國大陸連四年GDP成長率都在10%以上，創下世界紀錄，近期大陸股市走跌，也是個機會點，因為這也是「迷你熊的股市」。胡立陽大膽預測，台灣從520進入空頭市場，將在11月20日結束；不過，這個前提仍要觀察美國及大陸走勢，「如果大陸股市起來，加上11月20日到了，那就大膽買進」。
根據胡立陽看好的三通概念股，大致可篩選出：統一、大成、國泰金、長榮航、晶華、國賓等個股，值得投資人注意。
本報8月「投資特快車」─與大師面對面論台股系列講座第三站日前在台中豐原藝文館舉行，邀請胡立陽與凱基證券（原中信證券）研究團隊與投資人面對面，分析如何掌握下半年投資趨勢、贏在嶄新的投資理財時代。
胡立陽首先指出，台灣投資人犯了一個很嚴重的錯誤，就是都不關心國際間到底發生了什麼問題，總是關起門來、矇著頭玩股票。以這次520為例，當時美國股市下滑、大陸跟著一路由6,124點慘跌近六成，如果台灣經濟最依賴的美國與大陸股市都不好，台股又何來上萬點的遠景？以目前情形來看，台股上萬點根本就是個笑話。
胡立陽說，很多人稱他是「股神」，其實是「我能看到你們看不到的東西」罷了。前陣子，長榮航股票由520時的21.5元，一度跌到9.7元，他告訴朋友說這是很好的買點，朋友卻說他瘋了，因為油價很貴，飛機飛的愈多、賠的愈多。
胡立陽說，這些朋友都沒有想過，石油價格將在二年內跌到每桶七、八十美元，兩岸三通後，往來兩岸的飛機班班客滿、北京、上海、桃園等機場都是人山人海的情形。
【2008/08/17 經濟日報】 @ http://udn.com/
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Bund No. 18 @7/4 |
部落格教主: 台股還沒跌完 (2008/8/17 下午 03:01:38 )
黃國華：台股買點未到 別碰中概股
【經濟日報╱記者賴育漣／台北報導】 2008.08.17 03:27 am
部落格超高人氣分析師黃國華。
本報系資料庫
部落格超高人氣分析師黃國華昨（16）日指出，台股的買點還沒到，現在美元強勢，可考慮投資美元計價的商品，例如美債。他說，陸股在奧運前已大跌，透露潛在性問題，中概股先別碰為妙。
上市櫃公司半年報將陸續出爐，先前已有歌林、仕欽等地雷股，他提醒投資人觀察季報時，可觀察第二季的「毛利率」及「現金流量」，評估公司體質，而中概股近期保守為佳。若底部出現，他透露可以穩健的大型權值股，如台積電等介入。
黃國華以「總幹事」為筆名，在網路開設部落格與投資人分享投資，部落格瀏覽人氣已經突破千萬人次，堪稱台股最具人氣的部落客。
黃國華指出，雖然大陸選手在奧運頻奪金牌，但奧運前的陸股已率先往下墜。他說，近年來人民幣只升不貶，造成全球熱錢競逐，現大陸為救出口已經開始讓人民幣貶值，熱錢流出可能重回美元市場，也是支撐這一波美元上揚的因素。
黃國華近期相當看好美元，不認為美國為了抑制通膨可能會升息。他說，在7月份原物料最高檔的時期，美國都未曾升息，現在油價、原物料價格已逐步回跌，美國Fed升息機率不大，且若短線景氣未回升，債券也是穩健的選擇，因此美元計價的債券或其他美元商品都是可考慮介入的商品。
黃國華直言，台股至今未看到落底。他說，除非時間點滿足，且股價有一波下挫，讓買點浮現，他才考慮介入。
黃國華認為，市場歷經嚴重空頭，很難在一季、半年內就反轉，以去年11月台股從約9,800點轉入空頭，一般至少一年的時間才能扭轉，現在時間點還未被滿足。
黃國華在股票市場很「耐得住」，從去年11月至今空手，不僅跳過總統大選前台股的熱燒行情，沒有買進任何一張股票，在2000年到2003年間，他也是一張股票都沒買，一直等到SARS後才進場。
有很多網迷、粉絲跟他要明牌，他扮扮鬼臉說，去年只做了二檔股票─群創、台塑，講出來可能會讓原本預期將聽到飆股的粉絲昏倒，但是這二檔讓他投資四個月就有四、五成的報酬率。
去年11月後美國Fed調降利率，成了黃國華看空後勢的最大理由，出脫手上全數的股票。
他認為，Fed一定是蒐集相當多的資訊才做了這個決定，降息代表景氣降溫，讓他看空後勢，將近一年的時間內，美元弱勢、跌到新台幣29.9元兌1美元，他因此買了5個月到期的美元部位。
黃國華表示，買賣股票要相當謹慎，進場前要通過他能長抱一年的嚴酷評估才會進場，他在大選前，就透過自己的部落格提醒投資人要小心，當時還曾遭到多頭網友唾罵。
七年來經營自己投資及寫文章的生活，每年花100萬元以上帶老婆小孩出國數趟，存款能以每年200萬至300萬元的速度增加。
黃國華笑著說，上半年指數一度攻上9,300點，但算算看，整體市場賠100萬元的投資人可能有100萬人，他說：「別人可以賠，我沒有其他收入，一毛都賠不得。」
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Bund No. 18 @7/4 |
UBS台灣主管亂測股市，更無分析師的牌! (2008/8/14 上午 08:51:21 )
標題:台股今年高點 瑞銀打65折
讀者註:
外資主管看圖說故事，也沒有CSIA的牌，會被人檢舉!而且個股也都讓客戶買了，才跟報社講，讓買報紙的人去跟。就跟許多投顧老師一樣，要拉的股票，先跟頂級會員講，再跟一般會員講，讓一般會員拉抬，然候叫親友出這檔被拉上去的股票。台股是吃人市場，你就等著被人吃!
2008-08-14 工商時報 【張志榮／台北報導】
520後外資券商調降台股指數高點再添一家！瑞銀證券台灣區研究部主管董成康昨（13）日將今年底台股指數高點的預估值，從12,000點大幅調降至7,850點，等於打了65折！不僅是第四家調降台股預估的外資，其調降幅度高達34.58％也是刷新紀錄。
單就第三季來說，董成康認為短線在市場投資氛圍已極度悲觀的情況下，有一波不錯的反彈可期待，是進場佈局下游硬體製造族群的好時機，證券股也不錯。從長線佈局角度來看，受惠於兩岸政策開放的資產股也可以注意。此外，金融與半導體族群看法中立，原物料與航空股則建議暫時避開。
若依此邏輯篩選，董成康因應下半年台股保守走勢所建議的個股分別為：台積電（2330）、鴻海（2317）、宏碁（2353）、緯創（3231）、中華電（2412）、遠紡（1402）、中信金控（2891）、元大金控（2885）等8檔。
在大多頭摩根大通與瑞銀證券相繼下修台股指數高點預估值後，等於是宣告現階段台灣的總體經濟環境與投資氛圍不佳，外資圈sell side評估年底台股指數已不具備上萬點的條件。
董成康指出，台股並非不具備投資價值提升（re-rating）條件，而是總體經濟環境惡化情況已讓市場不得不注意。因此，台股re-rating題材只能等到2009年下半年方能浮現。
造成這波外資圈sel side大幅下修台股指數高點的最重要原因，還是在企業獲利大幅衰退。自520以來，董成康已將2008與2009年台股企業獲利預估值分別調降4.7％與8.9％，影響所及，2008年企業獲利無意外將衰退2.7％，2009年預估也僅能成長2.5％，且此數據仍有下調風險。
董成康坦承，以目前全球經濟走緩情況來看，台股前景仍是混沌一片，不過，短線在市場投資氛圍已極度悲觀的情況下，8-9月仍有一波不錯的反彈可期待。但到了10月，代表末端市場需求狀況的實際銷售數據（sell through）將陸續公佈，若能過得了這一關，11至12月應該還有一波反彈可期，因為會開始看2009年。
因應整體投資氛圍，董成康先將年底台股指數高點從12,000點調降至7,850點，此價位是2009年13倍本益比，這也是過去3年12至17倍本益比區間的下檔處，過去10年的歷史低點則是在11倍，但目前台股5％的現金收益率是夠高的。
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Re:股市岌岌可危 (2008/8/4 下午 03:26:51 )
7000失守 台股跌25點 量創21個月來新低
【聯合晚報╱記者林超熙/台北報導】 2008.08.04 02:56 pm
今天台股受到上周五美股表現疲軟、國際油價再告大漲、台北電腦展銷售不如預期等多重利空衝擊，一開盤指數即摜破7000點大關，雖盤中一度傳出政府四大基金護盤，指數得以拉上小紅，但營建、觀光飯店、鋼鐵等類股的大單賣壓不斷，挫低多頭進場人氣，終場收黑下跌25.18點，以6977.36收盤，7000點整數關卡再告失守，成交值606億元是95年10月31日586億元以來最低量。
由於市場人氣潰散，盤勢幾乎由空方主控，影響指數比重較輕的營建、觀光飯店類股，雖盤中打落跌停的家數一度大增，惟不少投資人認為7000點附近已具支撐而逐步進場，鎖定在金融、食品、紡纖與友達等面板特定電子股上，使得後場指數跌幅收斂，多空對峙力道相持不下。
觀察近2年大盤成交量低於700億元以下，所扣抵的指數與盤勢消長變化，似乎可看出，大盤指數在「落底」後，成交量均會維持一段低量的盤整期，以95年7、8月期間為例，當時指數係在7月中創下6232新低點，成交量則延後一個月於8 月創新低，但指數則由8月下旬的6500點，一路反彈至12 月底的7900點，4個月間指數計反彈2400多點；對照本波走勢，指數在7月16日創6708點，而大盤的成交量於上周五先創下711億元近9個月新低後，今天更低，與95年8~12 月反彈走勢頗為相近。
市場指向，政府四大基金連續幾天力守7000點關卡的味道頗濃，這有助於底部區吸引大戶與中實戶的進場布局買氣，證券分析師表示，若台股底部能確認在7月中的6708點，則大盤再逢壓回6900點附近，倒是空手或低持股者布局的良機，半年至一年的長線報酬可期。
【2008/08/04 聯合晚報】@ http://udn.com/
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130/30 120/20 funds |
放空最美，利潤相隨 (2008/7/21 下午 04:10:07 )
Never Have So Many Short Sellers Made So Much Money With Stocks
By Alexis Xydias
July 21 (Bloomberg) -- Investors worldwide are betting more than $1 trillion on a collapse in stock prices.
Managers from William Ackman to Jim Rogers made a total of at least $1.4 billion in July with wagers against U.S. mortgage financiers Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Harbinger Capital Partners staked $665 million that U.K. mortgage lender HBOS Plc would drop and Sao Paulo-based hedge-fund manager Francisco Meirelles de Andrade's short selling of Cia. Vale do Rio Doce is also paying off.
More than $1.4 trillion of equities worldwide are now on loan, about a third higher than at the start of 2007, data compiled by Spitalfields Advisors, the London-based firm specializing in securities lending, show. Almost all of that is being used to speculate that shares will fall, according to James Angel, a finance professor at Georgetown University who studies short selling. The global economic slowdown, $447 billion in bank losses and an explosion of funds that can profit from stock declines spurred the increase in short selling, helping send 22 of 23 countries in the MSCI World Index into bear markets.
``It's a huge amount of money,'' said Peter Hahn, a London- based research fellow for Cass Business School and a former managing director at Citigroup Inc. ``Shorts have come a long way. They are getting into the mainstream, and long holders need to understand the shorts are not evil.''
$11 Trillion
While U.S. and U.K. regulators tighten rules on short sellers amid concern they're accelerating more than $11 trillion in global stock losses this year, countries from Indonesia to India are opening up to the practice, which involves borrowing stock to sell it on the expectation it can be purchased at a lower price before paying back the loan.
Assets at so-called 130/30 and 120/20 funds, or those that are allowed to both hold stocks and short them, may climb to $2 trillion by 2010 from $140 billion in 2007, according to a study last year by Westborough, Massachusetts-based Tabb Group. Spitalfields estimates these funds may borrow an additional $600 billion by 2010.
Spitalfields was founded by Mark Faulkner and Bill Cuthbert in 2004 after careers in securities lending and investment banking at firms including New York-based Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Frankfurt-based Deutsche Bank AG, respectively.
Short selling on the New York Stock Exchange rose to 4.6 percent of total shares last month, the highest since at least 1931, according to data compiled by Bespoke Investment Group LLC, the Harrison, New York-based firm that manages money for wealthy investors and provides financial research to institutions.
Wipe Out Shareholders
Short selling of Washington-based Fannie Mae and McLean, Virginia-based Freddie Mac, which own or guarantee about half of the $12 trillion of U.S. mortgages, surged before the shares plunged this month on concern they will require a bailout that would wipe out shareholders.
Fannie Mae tumbled 64 percent from the end of June, when so- called short interest stood at 138.7 million shares, through July 15, according to data compiled by Bloomberg and the NYSE. Freddie Mac sank 68 percent from the end of June through July 15 after short interest reached almost 83 million on June 30, the highest since at least 1991.
Even after a 90 percent rebound by Fannie Mae and a 75 percent surge by Freddie Mac in the final three days of trading last week, that would have left the shorts with a combined profit, excluding costs, of at least $1.4 billion from June 30 through July 15, the data show.
Survival of the Fittest
Ackman, 42, who oversees $6 billion at Pershing Square Capital Management LP in New York, said on July 15 he had short positions in both Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Rogers, 65, said on July 14 that he hadn't covered his short positions in Fannie Mae and would increase his bet if the shares were to rally.
``Short sellers are a very important part of the ecosystem of our financial markets,'' said Angel, a professor at Georgetown's McDonough School of Business in Washington. ``The same way that lions go after a herd, they go after the weaker animals. The shorts will pick on a company where there's a legitimate controversy over its valuation.''
European short sellers have also profited during the sell- off. The Euro Stoxx 50 Short Index rose 29 percent in the first half of 2008, the best performance since at least 1992. The Euro Stoxx 50 tumbled 24 percent in the period, its worst ever start to a year.
`Market for Speculators'
A slump in British banks helped spur the U.K. Financial Services Authority to impose rules on June 20 requiring firms to disclose short positions in companies that sell shares in rights offerings, when those positions exceed 0.25 percent of the company's stock. The FSA cited short bets on June 13 for ``severe volatility in the shares of companies conducting rights issues.''
Harbinger Capital, the New York-based hedge fund run by Philip Falcone, the former head of high-yield trading at Barclays Capital, disclosed a short position of 3.29 percent in HBOS as of June 20. Edinburgh-based HBOS has slumped 62 percent this year.
``The market is becoming a market for speculators rather than a market for investors,'' said Roger Lawson, London-based director at the U.K. Shareholders' Association. ``These guys are making fat profits out of these market maneuvers. It should be restricted to a very limited level of market cap, otherwise it becomes market manipulation.''
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission last week limited so-called naked short sales of Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and brokerages. In such a strategy, speculators sell shares they haven't secured first. The decision comes amid an investigation of whether trading abuses contributed to the collapse of Bear Stearns Cos. in March.
`Send a Message'
James Chanos, president of Kynikos Associates Ltd., says the new rules won't deter most short sellers from making legitimate bets against companies.
``The SEC is trying to send a message -- I am again not quite sure what the message is,'' Chanos, a short seller and one of the first investors to raise questions about Enron Corp.'s accounting, said on Bloomberg Television from London. ``I am just not sure that this was an issue at all for the equity prices of these companies.''
The SEC's move ``squeezed'' some short sellers, forcing them to close positions they shorted earlier by buying the shares, Bespoke data show. Among Standard & Poor's 1500 companies, those with the highest short interest gained the most, rising 15.1 percent on July 16 and July 17, according to the firm's data.
So-called short covering also helped financial stocks in the S&P 500 surge 12 percent on July 16, the biggest-ever gain.
While regulators in the U.K. and U.S. move to limit some types of shorting, the practice is increasing elsewhere. India's capital markets watchdog said in December it would lift a six- year ban on short selling. Indonesia followed last month, allowing the practice for the first time.
Shorting Brazil
In Brazil, equities on loan in June jumped 22 percent from a month earlier to a record $23.3 billion, according to the Brazilian Clearing and Depository Corp. Shorting increased after the Bovespa Index climbed to an all-time high on May 20.
Francisco Meirelles de Andrade, a hedge-fund manager at Nest Investimentos Ltda., is shorting Rio de Janeiro-based Vale, the world's biggest iron-ore producer, which tumbled 6.5 percent last week after its share sale raised less than some analysts expected. His Nest Fund Ltd. Class Long Short Equities fund returned 30 percent in the 12 months through April.
``Short selling helps markets become more efficient,'' said Dallas-based David Tice, 53, founder and manager of the Prudent Bear Fund. ``Short selling is here to stay.''
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NOWnews.com |
被批預測陸股不準？羅傑斯：未曾看好 買A股是傻瓜 (2008/7/21 上午 10:42:42 )
2008 / 07 / 21
投資大師羅傑斯，先前一直表示，看好中國大陸的經濟發展，不少大陸的股民，因此追隨大師腳步加碼股市，沒想到，今年以來，滬深股市跌個不停，有人就認為，羅傑斯看不準，把氣發在大師身上，這讓羅傑斯最近接受訪問時，相當氣憤地說，他看好的是 B股，從來沒說過看好 A股，還說去買 A股的人，都是傻瓜。
「例如假設來說，中國大陸股市在一星期內大跌 15%，那就是股市跌進底部了，我不知道這會不會發生，可能要花上 1個月，甚至是 6個月，才會讓股市跌到底部。」羅傑斯曾經在 7月初，這樣看中國大陸的股市。
羅傑斯認為，中國股市不會短期內狂跌，但卻被媒體解讀為羅傑斯看好中國大陸股市，尤其是 A股，結果被羅傑斯吐槽，認為翻譯的人英文有問題，對此，羅傑斯說，他從沒看好過中國大陸股市，他最近在一場訪問上，還氣憤地說，傻瓜才會去投資 A股。
因為 A股的股價太高，羅傑斯同時也嚴正澄清指出，他買的是 B股、 H股和 S股，這些都比 A股便宜，自己根本沒投資 A股，羅傑斯並澄清說，中國大陸股市長遠來看是牛市，今年卻是熊市。羅傑斯認為，大陸股民誤解他的話，讓他以後不想和解讀英文有問題的人多說話，免得話被扭曲。這樣看來，或許以後聽大師說話，還是得聽仔細一點。
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面對空頭 新政府準備好了嗎 (2008/7/16 下午 02:54:31 )
2008-07-16【中時電子報巫彩蓮／特稿】
五二○以來，台股自從9303波段高點反轉急下，距離七月二十日，還差三個交易日、五個日曆天，不到二個月的時間，台股跌掉到2400點，6500點十年線保衛戰，如果再跌破，簡單地解釋：這十年來，買股票人都是賠錢。
大部份人看到這個解釋，往往會說除非是套牢，否則不會有人，把股票放那麼久；6500點，除了技術線上支撐，可以說是「廣義」多空趨勢分水嶺，為什麼是廣義呢？因為多頭漲多修正，通常是回檔修正測試季線支撐，遇到季線通常會撐住，另外一個法則，就是回檔三分一、二分一的「黃金切割率」。
然而，這一波台股的跌勢，最令人難忘的是引爆點，落在新政府上台五二○，為了穩定市場信心，府院高層自從六月底相繼出面信心喊話，算一算次數，就屬行政院副院長邱正雄最多，分別在六月二十三日台股摜破8000點之際，邱正雄說，兩岸關係改善，若是中長期投資台股者，現在進場是「合理價位」。
六月二十八日行政院成立「因應景氣專案小組」，邱正雄表明邀請外資喝咖啡，鼓勵投資台股，七月十日台股跌破7000點，邱正雄出面說，可以營收不錯的股票可以買，不止是邱正雄，行政院長劉兆玄、總統馬英九都出面喊話。
很諷刺，政府高層的喊話，愈喊就愈跌，早在邱正雄第一次出面，針對股市發表談話，前綠營大老沈富就在談話性節目上說，邱正雄是內行人講內行話，邱講了中線、長線，言下之意，就是說抱著，不用融資，遲早都會賺。然後，沈後面又補上一話說，大家有聽過、空頭不摸底吧。
沈富雄口中所說「空頭市場」，是新政府、大部份市場參與者（從業人員、投資人、分析師）所不願意面對，空頭代表經濟疲弱，讓自詡處理經濟問題能力佳的新政府「破功」，空頭市場來臨，會衝擊週邊金融業營運，即使諸多資深經歷過空頭的分析師，心理自知趨勢已經改變，還是必須向下摸底，告訴投資人還有希望。
目前國際股市的表現，預告空頭市場可能來臨，從新政府一連串信心喊話，反映出還沒準備好，去面對未來可能發生的空頭市場。
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CNYES |
危機入市? (2008/7/16 下午 02:33:20 )
二房風暴 Soros搖頭 高盛看空股價 Biggs：市場反應過度！
鉅亨網程宜華．綜合報導
美國金融市場再傳利空，兩大房貸業者Fannie Mae(FNM-US) 和Freddie Mac(FRE-US)股價雙雙跌至谷底，美國政府已經親上火線援救。不過外界對此褒貶不一，國際投資家George Soros認為紓困計畫是一場「災難」，高盛證券更下調了Fannie和 Freddie的股價預估。不過有些分析師則認為這兩家房貸業者牽涉層面太廣，破產之說實為無稽之談，美財政部的做法也非常適當。
香港媒體今日報導指出，美國次貸危機陰影重現，George Soros在昨日接受媒體採訪時表示，這次金融危機的嚴重程度為史上僅見，「二房」事件絕非信貸危機的最後階段。
他認為現在這兩大房貸業龍頭基本上已經破產，政府卻還打算動用納稅人的錢購買它們的股票，實在「太過大膽」，將會讓聯準會 (Fed)財務狀況和國內的通膨繼續惡化，美元匯率更加波動。
高盛證券也認為這兩家公司的股價將持續下探，預估可能會進一步下挫 35%。高盛分析師調降了Fannie Mae的股價，預估從每股18美元至每股 7美元，而 Freddie Mac則從每股17美元遭調降至每股 5美元。
不過相較於上述較為悲觀的看法，避險基金經理人Barton Biggs則認為，Fannie和 Freddie規模大到已成為美國抵押貸款體系的一部分，牽動美國房市脈動的兩家大型房貸企業不可能就此倒閉，「我認為財政部祭出的紓困計畫很適當。」
但Barton Biggs進一步指出現在還不到低接銀行股的時候。因為美國房價的下滑，將會持續影響抵押貸款資產的價值。目前金融股的狀況與2000年網路股差不多，相較之下金融股應該還有下檔的空間。
三大外資 JP Morgan(JPM-US)、瑞士信貸和花旗環球證券也都認為在美國政府大力擔保下，這兩家房貸企業的不動產抵押債權證券 (MBS)違約率將不高，但亞洲股市散戶在信心潰散下狂殺盤，股市已經出現過度反應的狀況。
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美股可能再下殺12%，空頭市場才會結束! (2008/7/11 上午 06:00:31 )
S&P 500 May Lose Another 12% Before Bear Market Ends (Update3)
By Lynn Thomasson and Eric Martin
July 10 (Bloomberg) -- The Standard & Poor's 500 Index fell into a bear market and may not stop tumbling until it reaches a level not seen since August 2004, if history is any guide.
The benchmark index for American equities plunged 2.3 percent to a two-year low of 1,244.69 yesterday, bringing the loss since its October record to 20 percent. A drop in the index of another 12 percent would match the average retreat of 11 bear markets since 1946, data compiled by Bloomberg and Bespoke Investment Group LLC shows.
Shares declined for five straight weeks as more than $400 billion of bank losses, record oil prices and the fastest commodity inflation in 35 years threaten to push down earnings for a fourth quarter. S&P 500 companies are forecast to report an 11 percent decline in second-quarter profits, according to the average estimates of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.
``Until investors see what write-offs are going to be and second-quarter earnings, they're not interested in buying at any price,'' said Frederic Dickson, chief market strategist at Great Falls, Montana-based D.A. Davidson & Co., which oversees $23 billion. ``Our advice to our clients is that it's been far too early to buy. We want to see contributions by the banks to their loan-loss reserves stabilize before jumping in.''
The S&P 500 rose 0.7 percent today to 1,253.39 after Dow Chemical Co.'s agreement to buy Rohm & Haas Co. for $15.4 billion overshadowed a $5 increase in the price of oil.
Previous Bear Markets
The S&P 500's drop has lasted 275 calendar days and wiped out a fifth of its value. In the 11 previous bear markets, the index has dropped an average of 30.4 percent over 386 days, according to Bespoke, the Harrison, New York-based firm founded by Paul Hickey and Justin Walters that manages money for wealthy investors and provides financial research to institutions.
Hickey and Walters were formerly analysts at Westport, Connecticut-based Birinyi Associates Inc.
A similar decline would send the S&P 500 to 1,090, a level it last hit in August 2004, two months after quarterly profits expanded by the most this decade. The benchmark index at that point had climbed 40 percent from its bear market low of 776.76 on Oct. 9, 2002.
A 46 percent tumble in financial shares and a 29 percent decrease in a group of retailers, homebuilders and automakers has led the S&P 500's current decline. MBIA Inc., the bond insurer whose credit rating was reduced five times by Moody's Investors Service, slid the most since the S&P 500's all-time high, falling 94 percent. The Armonk, New York-based company gained 5 cents, or 1.2 percent, to $4.20 today.
Dow Average, Russell
The Dow average slipped into a bear market last week. The Russell 2000 Index of small-cap stocks reached a 20 percent decline from its peak on Jan. 17.
Rising borrowing costs have spurred concern that the nation's biggest sources of home-mortgage financing may not be able to fund their businesses. Fannie Mae, based in Washington, today dropped 14 percent to $13.20, the lowest since July 1991. Freddie Mac, based in Mclean, Virginia, tumbled 22 percent to $8, a 16-year low.
Banks in the S&P 500 lost 0.9 percent today, extending yesterday's 5.2 percent decline, which was the steepest drop since July 2002. The plunge on July 9 came a day after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said the central bank may extend securities dealers' access to direct loans into 2009.
`Like Cortisone'
``The various forms of stimulus are ultimately going to be unsuccessful,'' said Jason Trennert, chief investment strategist at Strategas Research Partners in New York. ``It's like cortisone. It allows you to play hurt, but it doesn't do anything to actually cure the underlying injury.''
Nine of 10 industries in the S&P 500 have fallen this year. Energy producers gained 2.7 percent today, leaving them up 1.3 percent for 2008. Oil, which dropped the first three days of this week on concern demand will slow as economic growth weakens, rose 4.1 percent to $141.65 a barrel today. Crude has gained 95 percent over the past year and touched $145.85 last week.
Retailers in the S&P 500 have dropped 18 percent since December as record oil prices, accelerating inflation and rising job losses weaken consumer spending. Hoffman Estates, Illinois- based Sears Holdings Corp., the largest U.S. department-store chain, slid 30 percent this year.
Consumer Prices
Consumer prices climbed 4.2 percent in the 12 months to May and the Fed said inflation risks have grown at the conclusion of its June 25 meeting. The Reuters/Jeffries CRB Index of 19 commodity futures added 25 percent this year. That would represent its biggest gain for any year since 1973.
Office Depot Inc. lost a third of its value this week for the second-steepest decline in the S&P 500. The world's second- largest retailer of office supplies reported second-quarter earnings below its forecast as U.S. employers cut jobs for the sixth straight month in June. Office Depot, located in Delray Beach, Florida, has fallen 33 percent to $7.20 so far this week.
``I haven't seen any signs of improvement, fundamentally or technically,'' said Walter ``Bucky'' Hellwig, who helps oversee $30 billion at Morgan Asset Management in Birmingham, Alabama. ``It's too early to move in.''
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bloomberg |
VIX指數不漲，股市跌勢不止 (2008/7/9 上午 07:15:46 )
U.S. Stocks Slump Won't End Until VIX Index Jumps
By Michael Patterson
July 8 (Bloomberg) -- The plunge in U.S. stocks, which sent the Standard & Poor's 500 Index to the brink of a bear market, will probably continue until the VIX index of options rises, according to Bespoke Investment Group LLC.
The VIX, as the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index is known, dropped 10 percent to 23.15. That's below its level during every ``bottom'' in the S&P 500 following drops of at least 10 percent since 1990, when prices for the options gauge began, Bespoke co-founder Paul Hickey wrote in a research note yesterday. The VIX closed at an average of 36.3 at the lowest point of the 13 so-called corrections in the S&P 500 since 1990, excluding the market's 12 percent retreat from a four-month high in May, Hickey wrote.
The S&P 500 declined 19.99 percent from its October record through yesterday, just short of the 20 percent threshold of a bear market. Loan losses sent financial shares to a five-year low and record oil prices dragged down consumer and industrial stocks. The benchmark index for U.S. equities tumbled 8.6 percent in June, the steepest monthly drop since September 2002, and closed yesterday at the lowest since July 2006.
``While the market has been oversold for some time now, one of the arguments against a snap back rally is that we still haven't seen a big spike in the VIX,'' wrote Hickey, whose Harrison, New York-based firm manages money for wealthy investors and provides financial research to institutions. ``While we would never place all of our bets on one indicator, the argument does seem to have some truth to it.''
The VIX closed at 29.38 on March 10, when the S&P 500 fell to a 19-month low and began a 12 percent rally over the next two months. The gauge, which measures the cost of using options as insurance against declines in the S&P 500, hit 42.13 at the bottom of a 19 percent decline in the S&P 500 that ended on Oct. 9, 2002, Hickey wrote. The S&P 500 rallied 34 percent over the next 12 months.
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鉅亨網 |
Re:股市岌岌可危 (2008/7/2 下午 02:10:12 )
美國股市底部已近？反向分析師已見曙光
2008 / 07 / 02
道瓊上周五收盤水準，是否就是自去年秋季開始的回檔走勢中的收盤低點？
約10天前，根據反向分析觀點，股市的氣氛顯示，大多投資顧問尚未認賠出場，亦即反向分析師所期待的股市底部訊號尚未出現。股市需要極度悲觀的氣氛，才能突顯出明確的漲勢訊號。
近十天來，道瓊工業平均指數下跌了逾700點，投資顧問們也已變得更為失望--這點倒無需意外。
但是他們失望的程度，是否已到了足以符合反向分析師所認定的極度悲觀呢？
修伯特股市通訊信心指數(HSNSI)係衡量一組投資通訊所建議的平均持股比例。6月19日，該HSNSI指數報-24.5%。周一(6月30日)收盤，HSNSI指數進一步下滑到了-35.9%。
亦即在道瓊下跌逾700點後，投資顧問所建議的持股比例平均還下降了11.4個百分點。
如果過去幾周，漲勢氣氛更為直線下降，那麼反向分析師就會更有信心認定這就是這一波的底部。然而，這波漲勢氣氛的下降，卻似乎井然有序，與急於認賠出場情況，有著明顯的不同。
然而，傾向看漲的反向分析師仍能於股市的氣氛中，找到部份的支撐。HSNSI指數處於-35.9%，較過去十年任何時候都低，甚至較2000到2002年空頭市場結束時還低。
這應是一項漲勢訊號。
那麼以反向分析導向的投資通訊觀點又是如何呢？
投資情報通訊(Investors Intelligence)的編輯柏克(Michael Burke)與葛瑞(John Gray)溫和看漲。
上周，他們告訴客戶說，底部需要時間完成。他們的意思並非底部已出現，而是認為股市現在正在打底。
獲利投資通訊(Profitable Investing)的編輯班德(Richard Band)預期股市將反彈。他於周五收盤後指出，「股市正處於艱困期，暴風雨通過前，恐有一番雷電交加。但強勢反彈正蘊釀中。」
班德於3月底曾預測，道瓊於今年底或2009年初，可能來到16000點水準。
班德周五在提供給客戶的報告中，並未提及股市預測。但無論如何，他這次預測的漲勢，幅度較前次預測要小得多。他說：「股市已接近反彈時候，可能會強勢上揚，且持續三或四周。」
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AAMC過來人 |
2008年上半年股債同跌! (2008/7/1 上午 08:28:24 )
Stock, Bond Slumps Signal Worse Than '94 on Inflation (Update3)
By Michael Patterson
June 30 (Bloomberg) -- It's been 14 years since investors suffered as big a retreat in stocks and bonds and some of the largest money managers say the losses may have more in common with the 1974 bear market before the worst is over.
The Standard & Poor's 500 Index dropped 3.2 percent since March and investors in Treasuries lost 2.2 percent, the steepest combined plunge in 14 years, according to data compiled by Merrill Lynch & Co. and Bloomberg. Equity and debt markets fell in tandem for only the sixth time since the savings and loan crisis of the 1990s as oil closed at a record 19 times and concern grew that inflation will cut the value of bond payments.
Dreman Value Management LLC, BlackRock Inc. and Cambiar Investors LLC, which together oversee $1.38 trillion, are buying banks, phone companies and oil producers to weather more declines in benchmark indexes. David Dreman, whose DWS Dreman Small Cap Value Fund beat 90 percent of its peers over five years, bought Cleveland-based KeyCorp as financial firms fell to a 10-year low last week. BlackRock added AT&T Inc. for the best dividend yield since 2006. Cambiar says Marathon Oil Corp. is inexpensive.
``Between inflation and the liquidity crisis, this is one of the toughest markets I've seen,'' said Dreman, who oversees about $15 billion in Jersey City, New Jersey. ``But it's not a market you sell into. Any losses you take by being too early will be more than offset by buying cheaply.''
Coordinated Plunge
Dreman founded his firm in 1977, three years after the S&P 500 fell 30 percent for its worst annual loss in the last 60 years. Stocks plunged as the Arab oil embargo pushed up U.S. consumer prices as much as 12.3 percent, at the time the biggest annual advance since 1947.
Consumer prices climbed 4.2 percent in the 12 months to May. The Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index, a gauge of 19 commodities, added 47 percent in the past year.
Investors were whipsawed this month by the Dow Jones Industrial Average's worst June since 1930 and the biggest losses in Treasuries in four years. Bets that the Federal Reserve will increase interest rates helped spur a 1,288-point tumble in the Dow average this month on concern higher borrowing costs will prolong the worst profit slump in six years.
The Dow industrials rose 3.50 points to 11,350.01 today. The S&P 500 increased 1.62, or 0.1 percent, to 1,280.
Bear Market
Just two of 10 industries in the S&P 500 rose this year. Energy producers gained 8.1 percent and a group of mining and chemical companies added 0.2 percent. Massey Energy Co., the fourth-biggest U.S. coal producer, advanced 162 percent for the index's biggest rally after the Richmond, Virginia-based company's first-quarter profit topped analysts' forecasts.
The drop in the Dow last week to its lowest level since September 2006 is part of a ``secular bear market'' that may last 10 to 15 years as home prices fall, consumers default and tighter credit slows economic growth, says Ryan Atkinson of Balestra Capital Ltd., which manages $550 million including last year's fourth-best performing U.S. hedge fund and is wagering equities will fall.
``The vast majority of investors are long-only investors and they would like nothing more than for stocks to always move to the upside,'' said Atkinson after the Dow came within 15 points of a 20 percent retreat from its October record. ``History shows we have bull markets and we have bear markets, and this is a bear market. That's what they're missing.''
China Tumbles
Global stocks posted their worst monthly decline since September 2002. The MSCI World Index retreated 8.1 percent in June, while China's CSI 300 Index lost 23 percent for the steepest slide among the 20 biggest markets. A 10 percent retreat in Brazil's Bovespa index cut its year-to-date return to 1.8 percent, leaving Canada as the world's best performer in 2008. The S&P/Toronto Stock Exchange Composite Index climbed 4.6 percent this year.
The Balestra Capital Partners fund rose about 130 percent in nine months last year after betting mortgage bonds would default, according to a letter sent to investors. Almost $400 billion of bank credit losses and writedowns sent financial stocks in the S&P 500 down 45 percent since the beginning of 2007, the worst performance among 10 industries.
`Far Worse'
Citigroup Inc. fell 22 percent this quarter and is trading at a decade low. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. added the biggest U.S. lender by assets to its ``conviction sell'' list last week and cut its recommendation on U.S. brokerages, saying losses in the industry will be ``far worse'' than it originally anticipated.
KeyCorp shares decreased 50 percent this quarter, the fifth-steepest drop among 90 financial companies in the S&P 500, after it said it would sell new stock and reduce its dividend to cover a tax ruling. Only one of the 21 analysts following the shares rate it a ``buy,'' according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Speculation that the Fed will lift its target rate for overnight loans between banks pushed the Merrill Lynch Treasury Master Index to the biggest loss since 2004. The index has averaged a total return of about 1.75 percent in quarters when the S&P 500 fell over the last two decades, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
Dennis Stattman, who helps manage about $46 billion in asset allocation funds for BlackRock, owns fewer stocks and bonds than are represented in his benchmark in part because oil's rise is spurring inflation even as the outlook for economic growth deteriorates. He likes AT&T, the biggest U.S. phone company, because a 19 percent drop this year pushed its dividend to 4.76 percent of the share price, the highest yield since July 2006.
`Pretty Carefully'
``We're buying pretty carefully and we're able to get some attractive stocks,'' Stattman, whose BlackRock Global Allocation Fund outperformed 86 percent of peers last year, said in a phone interview from Chicago. Still, ``there's some risk now that inflation is damaging the value of all financial assets, stocks and bonds included,'' he said.
Laszlo Birinyi, president of Westport, Connecticut-based research and money-management firm Birinyi Associates Inc., says it's ``very treacherous'' to make long-term bets on stock markets now because equities are swinging too much and there's ``very few historical parallels'' to gauge when they will stop.
The S&P 500 alternated between gains and losses for six days before ending last week with the steepest two-day plunge in four months. The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, a gauge of expected swings in the S&P 500, almost doubled in 2007 and surged 13 percent on June 26.
No `Buy' Ratings
Birinyi is purchasing companies such as Paris-based handbag maker Hermes International, which has no ``buy'' ratings and 17 ``sells'' from Wall Street analysts, according to Bloomberg data. He also owns stocks that outperformed peers such as U.S. Steel Corp., the country's largest steelmaker by revenue.
Hermes rose 16 percent in 2008, helped by takeover speculation and first-quarter revenue that topped analysts' estimates. U.S. Steel rallied 53 percent since December after hot-rolled steel-sheet prices jumped about 86 percent in the year through May.
``We want to look for individual stocks,'' said Birinyi, who oversees more than $300 million. ``That's probably the toughest part of the process but it's the most rewarding. It's where the opportunities are.''
Cambiar's Brian Barish beat his peers this year by purchasing energy and raw-materials producers. He's betting Houston-based Marathon Oil, the fourth-largest U.S. oil company, and Newmont Mining Corp., the world's third-largest gold producer, will advance because they haven't caught up with a 98 percent surge in oil and 42 percent gain in gold over the past year.
`Handful of Winners'
Marathon's stock fetches 7.5 times analysts' average 2008 profit estimate, 30 percent less than the average for energy companies in the S&P 500, according to Bloomberg data. Newmont's 6.8 percent gain this year is the ninth-best in the Philadelphia Stock Exchange Gold & Silver Index, which rose 13 percent.
Barish is shunning any company that relies on low energy costs and a surging economy to boost earnings.
``You're winding up with a handful of winners and a whole lot of losers,'' said Barish, who outperformed 98 percent of his peers this year running the Cambiar Aggressive Value Fund and the Cambiar Opportunity Fund. ``It's painful, but we're trying to concentrate our positions around the areas of the market where you don't have these ferocious headwinds.''
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udn watcher |
華郵：台股 下匹黑馬 (2008/7/1 上午 05:55:18 )
【聯合報╱國際中心／綜合報導】 2008.07.01 03:44 am
華盛頓郵報廿九日報導，中國大陸股市近年成為焦點，許多投資人忽略鄰近許多較小市場同樣前景可期，台灣就是很好的例子。
華盛頓郵報指出，新興市場通訊刊物「絲路投資者」（Silk Road Investor）主編莫斯特洛斯在最近報導中說：「在廿一世紀第一個十年結束時，台灣可能和日本一樣，成為超越共識的最大投資標的。」他將台灣列為「新資金標的」第四順位，次於俄羅斯、香港和印度。
莫斯特洛斯指出，台灣可望從亞洲政治情勢的演變中獲利。中國大陸和台灣緊張形勢的緩和，以及經濟關係的改善，機會已大為升高。對北京來說，改善關係有助提高其在亞洲影響力，削弱美國勢力；對台灣來說，主要好處是經濟面，對台北股市是一大利多。
他說，「一旦與大陸關係正常化，中國大陸勢必會對台灣大舉投資。」
莫斯特洛斯預見資金將流入台灣旅館與度假區的建設，並帶動台灣旅遊業的成長，他也預期台灣房地產會因中國大陸的投資而獲得提振。
【2008/07/01 聯合報】@ http://udn.com/
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bloomberg |
羅傑斯在石頭城心戰喊話 (2008/6/28 下午 03:10:29 )
Rogers Tells Investors Not to `Give Up' on China (Update2)
By Zhao Yidi
June 28 (Bloomberg) -- Jim Rogers, who in April 2006 correctly predicted oil would reach $100 a barrel and gold $1,000 an ounce, told investors not to ``give up'' on Chinese shares after the country's stock index fell almost 50 percent this year.
``Start buying when others say `never again','' Rogers, 65, said today at an investor conference in Nanjing. There is ``much money to be made'' from investments in Chinese stocks, he said.
China's CSI 300 Index has slumped 52 percent from its Oct. 16 peak on concern government measures to curb consumer prices will hurt earnings growth. Rogers, who first started buying Chinese stocks in 1999, said he hasn't sold any of his holdings.
``It's still a growth story in China,'' said Andrew Sullivan, a sales trader at Mainfirst Securities Hong Kong Ltd. ``It still has a good manufacturing industry.''
Rogers told Chinese investors that the current correction is ``the way the market works,'' and they shouldn't be a ``market timer'' trying to figure out when is the bottom.
``You should get in at a time like now,'' Rogers said. ``I'm starting to think about buying again.'' He said he'd be ``investing in China for the rest of the century.''
Investors should ``learn about commodities,'' Rogers said. Oil prices, which reached a record in New York trading yesterday, will go higher, he said.
Crude oil for August delivery rose 57 cents, or 0.4 percent, to a record close of $140.21 a barrel yesterday on the New York Mercantile Exchange, extending its gain this year to 46 percent.
Oil Prices
The price of oil will keep rising, ``unless someone finds a major oil field very quickly, in accessible areas,'' Rogers told Chinese investors. ``The oil trend is still high even though the U.S. is trying to curb oil speculation,'' said Sullivan.
Rogers told investors to ``stay away from'' the dollar. The U.S. currency is within 2 percent of a record low against the euro reached in April as the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates to stave off an economic recession.
U.S. stocks ``are going to go down,'' Rogers said. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.9 percent yesterday, extending the decline for the 30-stock measure to 10 percent this month, the worst June since 1930.
The U.S. may be in its ``worst recession since World War II,'' Rogers said, adding that the subprime mortgage crisis in the world's biggest economy ``has many years to go.''
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udn |
胡立揚 對上 羅傑斯 (2008/6/27 下午 05:18:20 )
股市鐵嘴》胡立陽：中華經濟圈 走向10年大多頭
2008/06/27
【聯合晚報╱記者魏興中／台北報導】
中國A股投資國際論壇即將在明日於廣東深圳登場，其中最受矚目的是29日上午股市名人胡立陽與國際投資大師羅傑斯的對談。與羅傑斯看多商品牛市至2018年不同的是，胡立陽大膽預期此波商品大漲是泡沫行情，最遲將於今年底結束，大中華經濟圈並將因全球資金的挹注而走向10年大多頭榮景。
胡立陽指出，目前全球均籠罩在一片通膨的衝擊當中，不過根據他的觀察，與以往由需求牽引或成本推升所形成的通膨不同的是，此波全球性的通膨危機主要是由包括私募基金以及各項衍生性金融商品所造成的為害，也就是所謂的「泡沫通膨」。
胡立陽表示，由於全球過去5-6年均處於低利率於代，使得私募基金與衍生性商品盛行，而過多的資金在全球進行投資炒作，由最早的股市、轉向房地產、進而挺進石油領域、再到近期的大宗物資等，無一不有炒作的身影。也就是說，此波全球各項物價上漲所引起的通膨隱憂，全是炒作惹的禍。
而因炒作所造成的價格上漲，通常都會出現一夕反轉的現象。因此胡立陽大膽推論，現在的物價飆漲純粹是虛假的、泡沫的，最遲今年底前也將會出現一夕反轉的狀況，所以建議投資人不用擔心，未來全球經濟的運行將會逐漸恢復到正常的軌道。
胡立陽指出，隨著泡沫通膨的破滅，他預期2年內全球將有三分之二國家的股市將會崩盤，尤其是歐美股市。而屆時由歐美市場抽離出的資金，將會轉向具有實質經濟成長的大中華經濟圈如中國、台灣、越南等進行投資，因此他預期未來10年大中華經濟圈將走出長多的多頭榮景。
【2008/06/27 聯合晚報】
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名噓 |
股民：政府到底有沒有心要護盤？ (2008/6/27 下午 04:41:18 )
【聯合晚報╱記者葉憶如/台北報導】 2008.06.27 03:10 pm
美股昨日暴跌之際，央行卻選在此時機宣布調高存款準備率的「利空」消息，被指為「台版宏觀調控」。台股今日開盤果不其然重挫逾 3%，號子裡罵聲陣天，有投資人不滿地質疑：「政府基金這二天護盤都護得欲振乏力了，彭總裁一定要選在這種時候出來扯後腿嗎？」「政府到底有沒有心要護盤？」
台股慘兮兮，小投資人本來已經被油電雙漲的通膨搞得生活壓力大增，股票又支支慘遭套牢，財富大幅縮水，日子更是過不下去，最近恐怕還得收到證金公司發出來的融資追繳令，到底要不要再補錢，還是乾脆讓它斷頭算了？到哪裡去籌錢，滿腹委屈無處訴。號子邊的餐廳、便當店人愈來愈少，大家都得省吃儉用，辛苦賺錢的上班族近來也變得認命，企業倒閉、關廠的愈來愈多，還是乖乖上班保住飯碗。
總統選後台股投資人「馬上瘋」，代表散戶的融資水位更一路攀升。散戶選後瘋狂加碼的聲勢，不僅擊敗投信、自營商，連外資都望塵莫及，不少第四台投顧界老面孔，在廣播、網路、部落格上瘋狂叫進，都說是苦等八年來少見的好機會！
不料行政院端出的牛肉愈來愈小塊，利多一一實現台股卻都不漲，散戶成為傻子，股票慘遭套牢還成為台股不漲的箭靶。市場專家說「散戶融資減肥不夠是台股無法上漲」的元兇，聽到這種話的散戶投資人個個滿肚子氣。讓原本滿腹熱情支持馬英九選上總統，又拿錢支持馬政府、愛台灣的散戶投資人傷心抱怨：「馬英九把票還給我！」
【2008/06/27 聯合晚報】@ http://udn.com/
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農十七 |
聽說麥嘉華要在台灣買田讓羅傑斯種 (2008/6/27 下午 04:02:16 )
吉姆．羅傑斯(Jim Rogers)有多重視台灣市場？6月25日投資大師再度光臨台灣，並在當日至總統府拜會總統馬英九，3個月內連續來台兩次，就不難了解這位國際投資大師心繫台灣，看好台灣因為兩岸和解，在無戰爭的憂慮之下，將在全球一片景氣低迷中異軍突起，成為國際資金的匯流處。
台股跌跌不休 免驚！
羅傑斯上一次來台時就表示被台股深深吸引，並宣稱要擁抱台股，但台股自520以來下挫15％，他認為台灣股市短期的下跌主要是受到美國景氣衰退、全球投資大環境不佳的影響，並不是新政府領導不好，羅傑斯打趣的說：「台股跌不能怪馬總統，要怪就怪布希、柏南克或是葛林斯潘吧！」。
同時，馬總統也對股民信心喊話：「台灣的股市，這媒體的說法是跌跌不休，很多人很擔心，另方面我們對台灣所需要的環境，正在努力打造。」馬總統釋出政府護盤訊息，6月25日當日股市立即翻紅上漲116點。
在與會過程中，馬總統為大師闡述他的兩岸政策，開放三通、開放陸客來台、鬆綁金融登陸限制…等，馬總統認為隨著兩岸關係的改變，將會擴大台灣內需以及促進兩岸商業交流、和平相處，可逐步減少國家國防支出，並讓兩岸人才交流互通。
鎖定三通、內需、農產品類股
台灣投資人都好奇羅傑斯大師如何看待台股，羅傑斯指出，早期他不看好台灣市場是因為緊繃的兩岸關係，但現在兩岸關係已經融冰，發生戰爭的機率大幅度降低，而台灣是全世界與中國最緊密連結的市場，台灣未來成長空間將會因為中國這個主要經濟體的帶動，有5至10年的發展榮景。
開放陸資是擴大台灣市場的第一步，台灣與中國互動愈是緊密，三通、觀光、內需題材相關類股將會是羅傑斯的首選，他認為過去中國大陸人民貧窮，出國觀光限制多，但現在已經全部改變了，未來世界各地都會見到滿坑滿谷的中國觀光客，這龐大的商機將會提升台灣的經濟發展。
一直看好商品市場的羅傑斯認為，農產品的牛市將會再持續10年，全球糧食發生危機，農作物價格會持續突破之前的高點，台灣的農金類股同樣也會受惠。馬總統在會中提到他計畫推動第3次土地改革，預計釋出更多土地發展農業，羅傑斯開玩笑的說：「我願意到台灣當農夫。」
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老麥攝影 |
在金融業不如回家種田 (2008/6/27 下午 02:35:10 )
錢應放哪？ 市場烏鴉：買塊田吧！
【聯合報╱記者朱婉寧／台北報導】 2008.06.27 02:37 am
頂著大光頭的麥嘉華，以「末日博士」著稱，總是做著市場的烏鴉，為景氣唱反調。前天國際量子基金創辦人之一吉姆羅傑斯才在台灣表示「看好台股、會繼續加碼」，結果昨天麥嘉華立刻對台股唱反調，表示不看好台股未來還有太大的成長空間。
麥嘉華出身於瑞士蘇黎世，今年61歲，現職是投資研究機構麥嘉華公司創辦人與管理總監。1987年他曾成功預言了美股崩盤；去年，他也準確推斷了美國金融的巨大危機，預言全球股災的發生。
這次來台，他不改烏鴉本色，甚至變本加厲、非常悲觀的幾乎看空所有的市場。他說債券是糟糕的投資，因為利率太低，股票會好一點，但是現在全球陷入不景氣，股票也不會好到哪裡去。
那麼持有現金呢？他說，現在是負利率時代，現金會被通膨吃光。
那麼，錢到底應該放哪裡？他竟然對記者說：「去買一塊田吧！」
他說，過去25年來全球信用市場過度擴張終於導致泡沫化，未來成長有限了，他也勸金融業快去種田；也要大家改居住到鄉下，會比都市受到景氣的影響小。
他說，唯一會比較不受通膨影響的國家應是日本，因為日本替代能源的發展很好，能源使用效率高，原物料變貴對他們來說影響比其他國家小。
以理性分析、風險管理著稱的他，對數字非常有概念，在分析每一個問題的時候，不用看任何資料，西元幾年哪一國的股價多少、GDP多少、CPI多少、油價多少，成長或下跌了多少，竟都如數家珍，不費吹灰之力一一道出。
不過，除了唱衰外，他也曾在2001年勸投資人買黃金，當時金價每英兩約250美元，如果真的聽話乖乖買了的投資人，七年過後的今天可以獲得超過350％的報酬率。
【2008/06/27 聯合報】@ http://udn.com/
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羅傑斯回去找媽媽了 |
Re:Re:股市岌岌可危: 買田最美、油價相隨 (2008/6/27 下午 02:20:33 )
跌停超過三百家 台股7600點失守
【中時電子報巫彩蓮／台北報導】
原油期貨價格觸及140美元歷史新高，加上高盛調降多家企業的投資評等，道瓊應聲大跌358點，收盤價創下近二年新低。今（二十七）日亞股連番倒地，終場台股爆跌263.04點，以7548.76點作收，週線下跌353.68點，成交值為1224.81億元。櫃買指數大跌6.01點，以124點作收，成交值為139.11億元。
弱勢美元的趨勢，造成油價漲勢再起，道瓊創下今年第二大跌點，雪上加霜，中央銀行採取緊縮貨幣策略，意外調升存款準備率，兩大利空夾擊下，台股連下7800、7700、7600點三道關卡，劉揆急召財經首長表現關切之意，行政院副院長邱正雄出面信心喊話。
由於權值股台積電股價大跌3％，政府護盤基金適時點火，企圖拉回到平盤附近，終場下跌1.54％，高價指標股聯發科、宏達電連袂表態一度翻紅。中華電力抗跌勢，電信三雄遠傳、中華電、台灣大以及台塑化等配息概念股，有防禦性買盤進場低接，股價相對抗跌。美股大跌又遭遇六月摩台指結算，空頭氣焰猖獗，1100多家公司上市櫃公司下跌作收，跌停家數超過300家。
分析師指出，今日成交值擴增到1200多億元，頗有殺低取量的味道，台股再度破底來到7466點，元月底本波起漲7384低點可視為多空分水嶺，若是摜破此一支撐區，台股整理時間恐拉長。
融資維持率破140％ 未來2日追繳令齊發
【中時電子報巫彩蓮／台北報導】
高油價問題引發美股爆跌358點，台股開盤跳空重挫300餘點，跌幅達4％，市場平均融資維持率恐跌破140％的水位，已有部份融資戶面臨追繳壓力，下周一（六月三十日）、下周二（七月一日）台股將面臨融資追繳斷頭最大考驗，市場人士透露，大約有四成跌深、高融資股，面臨斷頭籌碼考驗，按此一情勢發展下去，台股仍有回測7000點的壓力。
台股跌跌不休，融資籌碼鬆動，融資餘額自五月底的3600億餘元高峰，降至昨（二十六）日的3313億元，台股企圖在7800點築底，未料，道瓊大跌358點，創下今年第二大跌點，台股一度摜殺到7466點，上百家上市櫃公司跌停，融資追繳壓力急速升高。根據元大證金統計資料顯示，目前市場平均融資維持率為144.5％，含融券整戶維持率為147％，不過，以今日台股近4％跌幅來計算，融資維持率恐跌破140％。
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萬x投顧 |
Re:股市岌岌可危: 買田最美、油價相隨 (2008/6/27 下午 01:48:26 )
台股成也馬英九 敗也馬英九
【中時電子報巫彩蓮／台北報導】
昨（二十六）日道瓊大跌358點，跌幅達3.03％，然而，台股盤中比照辦理跌300多點，不過，兩個股市指數水位不同，道瓊仍在11400多點，台股則是7800點的位置，跌幅高達4％，在券商擔任法人業務的周先生說：「人家美股是跌倒，我們台股是開窗自殺」；至於，退休靠股票投資打發時間的鄭復國戲謔地講：「看到股市的表現，還以為阿扁還在執政。」台股到底在跌什麼？高油價、高通膨，國際股市跌是原因之一；另一個原因是總統馬英九，並非全然是投資大師吉姆．羅傑斯口中的美國總統布希。
行情總是在樂觀中幻滅，這是股市宿命。對於總統馬英九就任行情，市場預期過高，成為台股下跌的原因之一，大部位的市場人士對於「萬點行情」多所期待，金鼎證券副總蔡明彥為少數勇於預測台股恐會大幅修正的分析師。
他以經建會每月底公布景氣對策信號來作分析，每次總統大選前，景氣對應的位置，若是選前景氣對策信號處在黃藍燈或藍燈，例如：一九九五年首次民選總統時，則選後不論誰當選，股市後市多不看壞。
反之；若選前景氣對策信號分數達到黃紅燈，或紅燈的過熱水準，選後不論誰當選，股市下跌的機率遠遠大於上揚，二○○○年以來，二次選舉都是在景氣的高峰點舉行，選後的行情走勢可想而知；簡言之，選前上漲，對於選後行情不要存有過度期待，若選前壓抑，可大膽擇股壓寶選後行情。
而今年「馬上」行情在景氣回挫的中段舉行，遇上國際原物料狂飆、通膨壓力劇增，加上美國次貸隱憂幽靈不散，景氣回落其來有自，今年選前的「馬上，上萬點」論，與民國七十九年12682前後的「利多與長紅」情況相當類似。
市場對於總統馬英九賦予太多期待，國內某家知名寶ｘ投顧蔡姓大師在總統大選過後，上電視分析盤勢擺出「V」的手勢，他補充說：所謂V不是二號（馬英九總統大選候選人號次），而是股市上2萬點。
無獨有偶，五月十七日二大財經專業報之一，還報導，謝姓股市名嘴說「台股萬點，眼睛閉一下就到了」，這也形成所謂「集體催眠」的效果，有九成以上的人認為，台股萬點行情可期，也許連總統馬英九都相信，否則，他不會問財經首長「台股為什麼一直跌？」
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